Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
425 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2003

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WASHED OUT FRONT SPREAD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BLOWING UP OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY MOVING INTO OUR CWA.
HAIL IS A PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO THE COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES...BUT FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A WORRY. MUCH
OF EAST KENTUCKY IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE RAINS OF THE PAST TWO
DAYS.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. LATER IN THE PERIOD...ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND OTHER MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS...THE WHOLE PATTERN RETROGRADES WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
LOOKING TO DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. AS WITH THE
PAST FEW DAYS...THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE ACTUAL
WEATHER RESULT AND ARE NATURALLY NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT. THE MAIN
VORT IS SPINNING THROUGH THE AREA CURRENTLY WITH A NODE EXPECTED TO
BRUSH BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN WE SEE A LULL IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THE TROUGH LIFTING OUT BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DROP IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE WITH THE VORT
THAT IT DROPS INTO THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY THEN STAYS TO OUR SOUTH AFTER THIS BEFORE THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES DIVE IN TO CARVE OUT THE WEEKEND/S UPPER LOW.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN ACTIVE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY SMALL HAIL AND FLOODING
WHEREVER THE STORMS TRAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE.
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO DIE OUT LATER THIS EVENING BUT ADDITIONAL
ONES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING THE FLOOD THREAT AS
PWS ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES AND THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND PRONE
TO TRAINING. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA RUNNING THROUGH 8 AM EDT WITH THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING.
AFTER TONIGHT WILL GO WITH A MORE DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS SPIKING MORE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL UNDER THE PERSISTENT TROUGH.

MOS TEMPS ARE SIMILAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR LOWS...WILL NOT
DEVIATE FAR IN THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN. AS FOR MAXES...PREFER THE
MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TUESDAY VERSES THE TOO COOL FWC AND MET. THE
NUMBERS ARE BETTER FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS. AS FOR POPS...SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAV TOO HIGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THE GFE GRIDS AND IFPS...PERFORMED MY USUAL INITIALIZATION OF
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS FOR THE FIRST 60 HOURS FROM THE
MESOETA. GENERALLY HAD TO ADJUST HIGHS UP FOR TUESDAY ALSO MASSAGED
THE GRIDS FOR OUR CCF POINTS. LITTLE CHANGES TO THE REST THROUGH
FRIDAY. BROUGHT UP SKY AND POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE SFC
PATTERN RETROGRADES. ALSO CHANGED TONIGHT/S SKY AND POPS TO FOCUS
MORE ON EARLIER ACTIVITY.

PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS:
LOZ 064/083 064/084 062 643
JKL 065/082 065/083 065 643

.JKL...FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH 8 AM EDT.

GREIF

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1122 AM EDT MON AUG 4 2003

LAST REMNANTS OF COMPLEX EXITING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. MAIN
TRIGGERS ARE UPSTREAM IN WESTERN KY WITH VORT/S/W TROUGH AXIS AND
STRONG JET STREAM ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE. STILL GETTING SOME GOOD
SUNSHINE OUT THERE IN PLACES. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING...WITH A
FOCUS ON LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MAIN TRIGGERS WILL BE CLOSER TO
US. WET BULBS COMING DOWN WITH S/W TROUGH PASSAGE. WIND PROFILE
REMAINS UNIDIRECTIONAL. ANY STORMS THAT GO UP TODAY WILL HAVE TO BE
CLOSELY WATCHED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. NUMEROUS COUNTIES RUNNING
LIGHT IN THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE DEPARTMENT...SO ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL VERY REAL AS WELL. WILL ADJUST GRIDS AND FORECAST
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATE OUT BEFORE TOO LONG.

GEOGERIAN

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915 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2003

AFTER NOT MUCH CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FINALLY POPPED UP IN THE LAST HOUR. MSAS
ANALYSIS SHOWING SOME WEAK SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE OVER
ERN KY. WATER VAPOR HINTS AT VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KY...WHICH 18Z MESOETA FORECAST ALSO POINTS TOO. THUS SOME SUPPORT
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND DO NOT PLAN AN UPDATE AT THIS TIME.

SBH

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-051100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
653 AM EDT MON AUG 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE LIKELY TODAY...SOME OF WHICH WILL BRING
HEAVY RAINFALL.  LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT LARGE HAIL
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATE TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE BORDERS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE HIGH WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TUESDAY. SPOTTERS ARE
URGED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCE OF FLOODING...DAMAGING WIND...OR HAIL.

HAL