Flash Flood Warning 79, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 190007
FFSJKL
KYC125-190045-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
807 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR LAUREL COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED... 

HEAVY RAIN HAS EXITED THE AREA AND COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED THAT 
WATER COVERING TOBACCO ROAD AT 4TH AND 9TH STREET NEAR THE EAST CITY 
LIMITS OF LONDON HAS RECEDED. NO ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF FLOODING HAVE 
BEEN RECEIVED FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. THEREFORE THE FLASH 
FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO
STATIONS...AND THE INTERNET FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$
GEOGERIAN

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 190018
FFSJKL
KYC051-199-190200-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
817 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULASKI AND CLAY 
COUNTIES.

THIS WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING.

COUNTY EMERGENCY DISPATCH OFFICIALS REPORT THAT THERE IS STILL WATER 
FLOWING ACROSS NUMEROUS SECONDARY ROADS. MANY DITCHES...SMALL CREEKS 
AND STREAMS ARE ALSO BANKFULL TO OVERFLOWING.

TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. AVOID LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND AREAS 
OF KNOWN HIGH WATER. THIS FAST MOVING WATER CAN SWEEP A CAR OFF THE 
HIGHWAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO
STATIONS...AND THE INTERNET FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$
DUSTY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 190204
FFSJKL
KYC051-199-190230-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1000 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1000 PM EDT 
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

HEAVY RAIN HAS SUBSIDED IN THE AREA AND THE CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE 
NOW ABLE TO CONTAIN THE RUNOFF. COUNTY OFFICIALS HAVE STATED 
THAT ROADS ARE ONCE AGAIN PASSABLE...HOWEVER CAUTION SHOULD BE 
EXERCISED NEAR SWOLLEN WATERWAYS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. 

TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. IF YOU DISCOVER A LOCATION WITH 
WATER COVERING A HIGHWAY...DONT RISK YOUR LIFE OR THE LIVES OF YOUR 
PASSENGERS TRYING TO DETERMINE HOW DEEP THE WATER IS. TURN AROUND 
AND FIND ANOTHER ROUTE TO YOUR DESTINATION. 

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO
STATIONS...AND THE INTERNET FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$
DUSTY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
457 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2003

MORE OF THE SAME.  WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA CONTINUING TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ONGOING PRECIP.  WIDELY VARYING
POPS FOR TONIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL ALONG THE BORDER TO LOW CHANCE
NORTH.  ANOTHER MID-LEVEL VORT RIDING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO GIVE
A GOOD SHOT AT RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

GOOD CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR THE SURFACE TOMORROW AS FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  AM
GOING WITH INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR TOMORROW AS AFTERNOON RAIN
IS A VERY GOOD BET.  ALL GUIDANCES LEANING TOWARD RAIN.

WILL KEEP FRIDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY AS STRONG UPPER LOW KEEPS
CLOSEBY...THEREFORE TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCES.

EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN GRADUALLY MOVES OFF OF THE EAST COAST BY TUE NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN US. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND THEN DRIFT OFF
THE EAST COAST MY MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH FEW CLOUDS...A WELCOME CHANCE FROM THE CURRENT PATTERN.

AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST...A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN ON TUE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE AND WED...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE CRITERIA UNTIL VERY LATE NEXT WED NIGHT. BY
THAT TIME...THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE WEST THIS WEEKEND WILL
SHEAR ON OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SFC COLD
FRONT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WENT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MAY 10TH. WET GROUND EARLY ON SAT INTO SUN
MAY SUPPRESS TEMPS A BIT FROM MEX GUIDANCE.

.JKL...NONE.

SHORT TERM: HEINLEIN
LONG TERM: PELTON
--------------------------------------------------------------------
UPDATED TO LOWER TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA AND INCREASE POPS IN SOUTHEAST
DUE TO TRAINING OF STORMS FROM MID TN TO SOUTHEASTERN KY.

.JKL...NONE.

HEINLEIN
--------------------------------------------------------------------
350 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2003

SHORTWAVE OVER OHIO VALLEY PULLING OFF TO NORTHEAST...WITH TAIL END
OF REMNANT SHOWERS GRADUALLY EXITING REGION. OTHERWISE...A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS STILL OUT THERE. SOME PATCHY FOG OUT THERE
FROM PREVIOUS RAINS...BUT OBS SHOW VISIBILITIES ON THE INCREASE AT
MANY LOCATIONS NOW.

A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE OVER LA TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE TN VALLEY TODAY. THEN REST OF SHORTWAVE GETS PICKED UP IN FLOW
AHEAD OF LONG WAVE THROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN US FROM CANADA...AND
COMPLETES ITS TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER EAST COAST BY WEEKEND. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LEAVES THE REGION IN PLEASANT AND DRY AIRMASS
FOR THE WEEKEND.

UNTIL THEN MUST CONTEND WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS ACROSS REGION...BUT
LACKING ON FOCUSING MECHANISM. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO STAY SOUTH TODAY...ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE...GIVING BEST SHOT OF RAIN ACROSS TN AND TO EAST
INTO VA/WV. BIGGEST CONCERN IS EXTREME SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. WITH ALL
THE RAIN OF PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...AND FF GUIDANCE LOW...PW STILL IN
THE 1.5 INCH RANGE...CANT HELP BUT TO CONSIDER AN AFTERNOON FFA FOR
THOSE EXTREME THREE OR FOUR COUNTIES. HOWEVER...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE
WITH DRYER TREND...JUST THAT AVNS TREND IS SLOWER. BOTH MODELS KEEP
FOCUSING MECHANISM...OR VORT CENTER TO SOUTH AND EAST. AND FLOODING
OF PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN WITH TRAINING OF HEAVY SHOWERS.
DONT SEE THAT AS A PROBLEM RIGHT NOW...SO WILL KEEP FFA OUT OF
FORECAST. HOWEVER...NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO LOOK AT POSSIBLE FFA FOR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH UPCOMING MODEL RUNS...OR IF PRECIP
BANDS TRACK FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOOON.

COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO REGION THURSDAY. SOME QUESTION ON EXACT
TIMING...BUT APPEARS IT MAY PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GOOD
INSTABILITY ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IF THIS PANS OUT. BEST
NEWS IS THAT IT BRINGS IN DRYER AND PLEASANT AIR MASS FOR A NICE
WEEKEND.

.JKL...NONE.

RAY

---------------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW
---------------------------------------------------------------------

1150 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2003

PCPN HAS PRACTICALLY FINISHED FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER WITH THE
FNT STALLED ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE STATE...DON/T FEEL THAT WE CAN
TOTALLY DROP THE CHC OF PCPN. WILL LOWER POPS AND CANCEL THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. STILL HAVE ONGOING FLOODING AND WILL RE-ISSUE FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE AFFECTED COUNTIES. RIVERS ARE A MIXED BAG BUT NO
RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY FCST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. WILL ISSUE NEW FCST
WITH THE ENDING OF THE FLOOD WATCH. HAVE ADDED FOG FOR ALL AREAS DUE
TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. SKIES HAVE
DECREASED IN COVERAGE SO TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AT THE DWPTS.

DUSTY

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-191100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
704 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOME AREAS. WHERE SHOWERS AND
STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY DEVELOP...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE DANIEL BOONE
PARKWAY AND KENTUCKY ROUTE 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY...A FEW ISOLATED REPORTS
OF HIGH WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY IN AREAS NEAR THE
TENNESSEE AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT ARE ENCOURAGED TO PASS ALONG ANY
REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, KY
1223 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1103 AM    CHENOA                    KY   TORNADO
06/18/03   BELL                           REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

MH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...COR FOR MISSING/INCORRECT WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, KY
1223 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1103 AM    CHENOA                    KY   TORNADO
06/18/03   BELL                           ESTIMATED F0 TORNADO
                                          TOUCHED DOWN NEAR
                                          CHENOA LAKE AND BLEW
                                          SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN.
                                          TORNADO THEN BECAME A
                                          WATERSPOUT OVER CHENOA LAKE
                                          AND SENT WATER
                                          APPROXIMATELY 200 FEET
                                          INTO THE AIR BEFORE
                                          DISSIPATING MINUTES LATER.
                                          REPORTED BY KENTUCKY
                                          DIVISION OF FORESTRY.

MH