Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 160347
FFSJKL
KYC189-160415-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1146 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR OWSLEY COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE AT 12:15 AM EDT...

AT 11:45 PM...COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED NO ONGOING WATER PROBLEMS IN 
OWSLEY COUNTY.  THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE.

RAIN HAS EXITED THE COUNTY.  ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR 
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. 

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO 
STATIONS...AND THE INTERNET FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/JKL

$$

OUDEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
415 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVER CENTRAL CONUS.  BOUNDARY IS STILL IN
THE VICINITY...NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  RADAR IS LIT UP LIKE A
CHRISTMAS TREE WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION IN A TROPICAL-TYPE
AIRMASS.  DO NOT SEE ANY REASON THAT WE WILL NOT CONTINUE TO HAVE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS WITH THE
FRONT NEARBY. NOT MUCH MORE TO MENTION UNTIL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
WIND PROFILE IS WEAK...PWS HIGH...BOUNDARY NEARBY...AND DECENT WAVES
OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE TO GIVE US A CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS.  THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED FFA FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT.  ENSEMBLES ARE PUSHING FRONT THROUGH BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY FINALLY.  WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...DESPITE GFS TRYING TO BRING IN SOME QPF ON SUNDAY WITH
WAA.

.JKL...FFA ALL COUNTIES THROUGH 6 AM.

HEINLEIN

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1158 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

MIDMORNING LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT RADAR SHOWS COVERAGE
CURRENTLY INCREASING. RUC AND MESOETA SHOW FAIRLY STATIONARY PATTERN
ACROSS FA IN SHORT TERM...WITH IMPULSES PUSHING OUT OF WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE ESPECIALLY HEAVY...BUT WITH GROUND ALREADY SATURATED EFFICIENT
RUNOFF CAN BE EXPECTED. WILL THEREFORE LET FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE TO
RIDE. FLASH FLOOD WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PIKE COUNTY.

HIGH POPS IN MORNING PACKAGE LOOK GOOD. UPDATE REQUIRED THOUGH TO
REMOVE MORNING WORDING...OTHERWISE ONLY ADJUSTMENT NEEDED IS TO
NORTHERN ZONES TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS A CATEGORY.

.JKL...FFA FOR ALL COUNTIES.

MCLANE

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PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW
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304 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

CURRENT SFC MAP FEATURES STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF
OUR AREA. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT HAS BEEN A NEMESIS THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONVECTION IS STILL
CURRENTLY ONGOING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NUDGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. PWS CONTINUE TO RUN VERY HIGH AND WITH SATURATED GROUND FROM
PREVIOUS RAINS AND EVEN WEAKER STEERING WINDS PROGGED FOR
TODAY...FEEL THAT FLOOD WATCH IS NECESSARY FOR ALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW COUNTIES HAVE ESCAPED SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL...WOULD RATHER PLAY IT SAFE AND COVER ALL THE BASES
TODAY...AS ANY PARTICULAR AREA COULD EASILY EXCEED FFG VALUES WITH
SLOW MOVING STORMS.

MONDAY INVOLVES MORE OF THE SAME...WITH MAIN ORGANIZED AREAS
OF CONVECTION FOLLOWING THE LUMBERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL VARY
POPS FROM LOW CHANCE IN THE NORTH...TO LIKELY IN THE SOUTH. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS INTERESTING AS GFS DEVELOPS A CUTOFF 5H
LOW WHICH HELPS INITIATE SOME DECENT ASCENT. 850 MB WINDS INCREASE
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AND LOW PRESSURE HELPS BRING EXISTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH. ETA DOESNT DEVELOP THE 5H LOW AS MUCH AND ALSO
CARRIES IT FURTHER SOUTH. GFS HAS PRETTY GOOD ORGANIZED SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WOULD ONLY
AGGRAVATE AN ALREADY TOUCHY HYDRO SITUATION. WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO BARES WATCHING AS IT
UNFOLDS.

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1045 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003

EVENING UPDATE.  NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS SO FOR UPDATE
IFPS WILL DO ALL OF THE WORK.  HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG.  UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY.

OUDEMAN

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-161100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
344 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL
RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. IN CONJUNCTION WITH ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND CAUSED BY PREVIOUS RAINS...THIS POSES A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE
NONE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS AT THIS TIME...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FLASH FLOODING WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT ARE ENCOURAGED TO PASS ALONG ANY
REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GEOGERIAN/MCLANE