Flash Flood Warning 115, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 031422
FFSJKL
KYC147-231-031600-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1021 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...

  WAYNE COUNTY
  MCCREARY COUNTY

* UNTIL NOON EDT

* AT 1000 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING TO FALL IN 
A WEST TO EAST SWATH ACROSS THE KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE BORDER 
COUNTIES. OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE FALLEN IN 
PORTIONS OF WAYNE AND MCCREARY COUNTIES SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. 
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE VICINITY OF LITTLE SOUTH FORK 
AND BURNETT BRANCH...IN SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTY...AND ROCK CREEK AND 
PUNCHEONCAMP BRANCH...IN SOUTHWEST MCCREARY COUNTY.

AT 1000 AM...COUNTY OFFICIALS WERE REPORTING NO FLOODING IN EITHER 
WAYNE OR MCCREARY.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER THE SAME 
REGION...DROPPING RAIN IN AREAS SATURATED FROM EARLIER STORMS.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...
ROADS AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK
AND MUDSLIDES.

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON.

LAT...LON 3699 8514 3659 8501 3661 8420 3690 8446

$$
MCLANE

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 031552
FFSJKL
KYC147-231-031615-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1151 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WAYNE AND MCCREARY COUNTIES WILL BE 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1200 PM...

AT 1145 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED AND THERE IS NO LONGER A RISK OF FLASH 
FLOODING. THUS THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 

NO REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING WERE RECEIVED AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON KY. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY 
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NO ADDITIONAL THREAT OF FLOODING IS EXPECTED. 

PLEASE PASS ANY FLOOD REPORTS TO YOUR NEAREST LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT 
AGENCY AND HAVE THEM RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON.

LAT...LON 3699 8514 3659 8501 3662 8420 3692 8447

$$
MCLANE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
445 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2003

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT ARCING ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER NORTH OF EAST KENTUCKY FROM A BROAD SFC LOW COMING UP THE
RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...ON RADAR...THE SHOWERS...AND NOW RECENTLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ARE FAVORING THE TENNESSEE BORDER. ALSO ON THE
SFC MAP A BETTER DEFINED COLD FRONT IS DIVING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...CUTTING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND IOWA. PLENTY OF WARM CLOUDS
COVER THE KENTUCKY SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ABOVE SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE COOLING CLOUDS COMING OUT OF
TENNESSEE BOOK-ENDING THE OHX CWA ASSOCIATED WITH LARGER CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ARE SLOWLY CREEPING EASTNORTHEAST.

THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A STRONG SHORTWAVE
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...RESTORING A BROAD TROUGH
TO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE MINOR WAVES AFFECTING KENTUCKY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IS THE ONE THAT THE GFS IS BLOWING UP
AS IT EXITS EAST KENTUCKY AROUND 18Z TODAY. WILL DISCOUNT THIS...BUT
PLENTY OF MINOR PERTURBATIONS CERTAINLY WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...
COMBINED WITH SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE ANY RAINFALL. THE
MODELS ARE IN EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE
AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER WET DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
JKL. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY WITH HEAVY...TRAINING RAIN CELLS A GOOD BET...THANKS TO PWS
STILL NEAR 2 INCHES. THIS WILL ADD TO THE NEARLY SATURATED GROUND...
PARTICULARLY IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY COUNTIES. ACCORDINGLY...WILL
CONTINUE THE FFA FOR OUR SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS. THE SFC LOW AND FRONT
WILL EASE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING IN THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. FOLLOWING
THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS AROUND...ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS THE SECOND COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. DRIER
AIR THEN MOVES IN AND KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A
TAD COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY
TOO COOL FOR HIGHS TODAY...EVEN WITH PLENTY OF RAIN EXPECTED. THEY
ARE ALL BETTER FROM TONIGHT ON...DID NOT STRAY FAR. LIKELY TO CAT
POPS TODAY ARE RIGHT ON THE MONEY...WENT A TOUCH HIGHER THEN
CONSENSUS FOR POPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

AS FOR GFE GRIDS...PERFORMED MY USUAL POPULATION OF TEMP/DEWPOINT
AND WIND GRIDS FROM THE MESOETA. HAD TO ADJUST THESE FOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRECIPITATION...MAINLY TAKING UP TEMPS IN THE
MODEL/S RAIN COOLED AREAS TODAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE...LITTLE CHANGE BUT TO FINE TUNE BASED ON LATEST RADAR
...SKY TRENDS AND MODEL CONSENSUS.

PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS:
LOZ 078/066 081/058 079 863
JKL 079/065 081/056 077 853

.JKL...FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS OF CWA THROUGH 4 PM EDT.

GREIF

----------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
----------------------------------------------------
1030 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2003

A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...WHILE TO OUR
W...THE FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST A BIT TO THE OH RIVER. AN
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL KY AND IS
GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST INTO THE CWA. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS REMAIN
NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. 500 MB TROUGH AXIS REMAINS FROM NEW ENGLAND
DOWN INTO THE OH VALLEY.

THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS NEARER TO THE TN
BORDER AND CLOSEST TO BEST GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INFLOW. THE
REMNANTS OF GRACE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST AND SHOULD CROSS
THE REGION TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH
THE LAKES AND DOWN INTO THE OH VALLEY HELP PUSH THE SYSTEM TO THE
EAST. THE BEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME TOMORROW WITH THE
BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF GRACE.

FOR UPDATE...OPENED UP RANGE IN LOW TEMPS AND ADDED PATCHY FOG. SOME
FOG HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT A FEW METAR SITES AND SOME TEMPS
WERE NEAR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TONIGHTS HOURLY
TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH WITH CURRENT TRENDS. TRIMMED
BACK POPS IN THE VA BORDER COUNTIES WHICH ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT.

JP

----------------------------------------------------
415 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2003

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA STRETCHING THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO...WITH AN ATTACHED WARM FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 500H
SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH THE LATER-MENTIONED PORTION OF OUR
SEEMINGLY EVER-PRESENT FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
ITS WESTWARD PROGRESSION. THE MOST SUPPORTIVE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS
WILL ENTER THE CWA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT RAINFALL CERTAINLY NOT
BE ABSENT THROUGH THAT TIME AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THIS IS RESULTING IN PLENTY OF RESIDUAL PRECIP WITH NO
LARGE-SCALE FOCUSING.

LOOKS LIKE LIKELY POPS WILL STICK WITH MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...UNTIL LONGWAVE PROGRESSION BEHIND THE
AFORE-MENTIONED SHORTWAVE MANAGES TO PUSH THE SYSTEM COMPLETELY
THROUGH BY THURSDAY EVENING...LEAVING THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOME FAIRLY COOL TEMPS EVEN AFTER THE CLOUD COVER
PASSES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

COREY

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
450 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR COUNTIES GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE BERT T. COMBS MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE FRONT SAGS BACK THROUGH THE AREA. RAINFALL  OF
AROUND ONCE INCH IS POSSIBLE ON TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES.
RAINFALL WILL BE ENHANCED BY PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS
OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE. GIVEN THE WET TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS
FLASH OR MORE GENERALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM REPORTS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INCLUDING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
FLOODING.