Flash Flood Warning 114, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 022201
FFSJKL
KYC147-235-022300-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
600 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...

  WHITLEY COUNTY
  MCCREARY COUNTY

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 558 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH WHITLEY AND 
MCCREARY COUNTIES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ROADS...FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS
OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLASH
FLOODING

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON.

LAT...LON 3660 8478 3681 8464 3694 8439 3695 8424
          3690 8409 3670 8391 3659 8394

$$

COREY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
510 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2003

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
FUNNELING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE TROPICS. THE REFLECTION
OF GRACE IS NOW OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THE
SAME SOUPY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH NEAR
100% RH AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. JUST SOME LIGHT FOG AROUND AT
4 AM. THE CLOUDS ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH THE BEST
CONCENTRATION ALONG THE FRONT AND RUNNING SOUTHWEST TO THE GULF
COAST. RADAR SHOWS JUST A COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS OVER EAST KENTUCKY
WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAINS ARE FALLING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER CLOSER
TO THE FRONT.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETREATS AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BECOMES A DEEP TROUGH. THE MAIN CULPRIT IN THIS TRANSITION WILL BE
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ETA IS QUICKER WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GFS BUT IS DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF THE GFS/S
CONSISTENCY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
A COUPLE OF ELONGATED SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. THE FIRST WILL PASS TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
ITS SIBLING PULSING ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TODAY. THE GFS FAVORS
THE HEAD PORTION OF THIS MINOR WAVE AND LEAVES LITTLE BEHIND FOR
TONIGHT...WHILE THE ETA HAS A MORE COMPLICATED SCENARIO OF A
STRONGER TAIL TO PASS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SOLUTION OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ETA...FOR SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING TO THE FRONT
WHILE EAST KENTUCKY WAITS FOR ITS PUSH SOUTH. THE ETA SWINGS IT DOWN
QUICKER THE GFS...AND ALTHOUGH THIS SEEMS OUT OF CHARACTER...AM
LEARY TO DISCOUNT IT TOO MUCH AS ITS BETTER RESOLUTION MAY BE ONTO
SOMETHING. NEVERTHELESS...EVEN IF THE FRONT STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 MB JET TO THE NORTH. DESPITE THE
EXPECTED CONVECTION AND CLOUDS...TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH NEAR 80
WITH ENOUGH DRY PERIODS AND MINIMAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WANDERS
SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC WAVE. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TAPPING INTO PWS NEAR TWO INCHES AND WILL LAY
DOWN A LOT OF RAIN QUICKLY...COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING CELLS AND LOW FFG NORTH AND SOUTHWEST HAVE ISSUED A FFA FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MAKING ITS PUSH SOUTH AS THE GRACE WAVE CUTS THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY CONTINUING THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT AND LOW PASS...THOUGH
IT WILL SLOW AS IT EXITS AWAITING THE PUSH OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. WILL NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OUR THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE HAD TIME TO SCOUR OUT AND SOME SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ALONG WITH ARRIVING COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NICE THOUGH AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED EAST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES OF THEIR PARENT MODELS. GENERALLY WENT WITH WARMER
VALUES DAYS AND NIGHTS. REGARDING POPS...WENT WITH THE LOWER NUMBERS
FROM THE MAV TODAY IN THE SOUTH BUT KEPT POPS FAIRLY HIGH NORTH AND
HIGH EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR GFE GRIDS...PERFORMED MY USUAL POPULATION OF TEMP/DEWPOINT
AND WIND GRIDS FROM THE MESOETA. HAD TO ADJUST THESE FOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY TAKING UP TEMPS IN THE MODEL/S
RAIN COOLED AREAS. REDID SKY AND POPS FOR CURRENT THOUGHTS ON THE
FRONT...MAINLY BEEFING THEM UP TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AM. ALSO
ADJUSTED THE EXTENDED TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH OUR
SURROUNDINGS SITES.

PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS:
LOZ 084/069 081/065 079 567
JKL 083/068 080/064 081 667

.JKL...FLOOD WATCH TODAY THROUGH 4 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

GREIF

----------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
---------------------------------------------------
1022 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2003

UPDATE TONIGHT TO FRESHEN UP WORDING.  ONLY DID MINOR TWEAKING TO
GRIDS.  FOR POPS UP NORTH...MADE THEM MAINLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AND
LEFT THE REST AS IS...30/20 POPS.  ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS BASED
ON OBS.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

OUDEMAN

---------------------------------------------------
442 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2003

PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS OVER THE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. ATMOSPHERE IS VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED AND CONVECTION IS BUBBLING
UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WITHOUT A GOOD MECHANISM TO FOCUS IT...IT
HAS BEEN RATHER SCATTERED.

THINK THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN FOR THE MOST PART AFTER THE
LOSS OF HEATING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTION
TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. WILL FOLLOW THE MOS
PATTERN OF HIGHER POPS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THINK
THAT MOS POPS ARE A LITTLE TOO HIGH IN THE NORTH CONSIDERING LITTLE
SUPPORT TONIGHT OTHER THAN THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH.

THE HANDLING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS IT TO THE OHIO RIVER...WHILE THE ETA SHOWS
SOMEWHAT OF A DOUBLE BOUNDARY (ONE SOUTH AND ONE NORTH) AND IT IS
HARDER TO RESOLVE THE POSITIONS. THE BETTER RESOLUTION OF THE ETA
ALLOWS IT TO PICK UP ON THIS SCENARIO MORE SO THAN THE AVN...SO
THERE MAY BE SOME TRUTH TO IT. THE ETA HAS A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION. BOTH THE ETA
AND GFS HAVE SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. AS A RESULT...LIKE THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF LIKELY POPS NORTH CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND
CHANCE SOUTH.

THE ADVECTION OF WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE SOUTH INCREASES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE.
HOWEVER...UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIP IS QUESTIONABLE...AND WILL USE
JUST CHANCE POPS.

WHAT IS LEFT OF GRACE PASSES ON WED/WED EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY.

A COLD FRONT FOLLOWING THIS PASSES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS ON THURSDAY...WITH
HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS CONTROLS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.

HAL

---------------------------------------------------------------------

1045 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2003

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LYING ACROSS CENTRAL OH IN AND IL.
CURRENT RADAR PICS ONLY INDICATING SOME MINOR SH0WERS OUT THERE FOR
NOW. EXPECT TODAY TO BE QUIETER THAN YESTERDAY AS CONVECTION WITH
FRONTAL INFLUENCE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. SOME STRONGER STORMS
STILL A POSSIBILITY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO A KEEP AN EYE ON ANY HEAVY
RAINERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN HIT HARD
IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. DESPITE SUN POKING THROUGH...SAT PICS SHOWING
PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ROTATING AROUND RIDGE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEAST US. WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AS WELL. WILL GO AHEAD
AND BUMP TEMPS UP A TAD IN SOUTHERN TWO ZONES AS CURRENT TRENDS
SHOWING VALUES TO SLIGHTLY EXCEED CURRENT FORECAST. OTHERWISE WILL
LET 50 POPS RIDE AND REMOVE MORNING FOG.

GEOGERIAN

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-031200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
518 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AND BECOME MORE
PREVALENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SEE A SOAKING RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
AN INCH...HOWEVER SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY DROP AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE EXCESSIVE RAINFALLS AMOUNTS...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE FRONT SAGS BACK THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ENHANCED BY PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF
TROPICAL STORM GRACE. GIVEN THE WET TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS
FLASH OR MORE GENERALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM REPORTS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INCLUDING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...FLOODING
...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE.