Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1005 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROF EXTENDS S ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MEXICO. AT
THE SFC A 989MB LOW IS OVER TENNESSEE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ENTIRE CWA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR.
LATEST MSAS SHOWS A 998MB LOW DVLPG ALG THE CDFNT S OF MOB. SQUALL
LINE IS MOVING INTO APALACHEE BAY AND NEARING OUR WRN GA COUNTIES.
SOME CONVECTION ERUPTING AHEAD OF THE SQ LN IS FORMING ANOTHER LINE
ACROSS THE SUWANNE VALLEY AND MOVING E AT 30-35 KT. CELLS WITHIN THE
SQ LN ARE RACING NNE AT 50+ KT. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 12Z SOUNDING
VERIFY DRY AIR ALOFT E OF LINE FROM GA COAST TO GNV. THE WRN
COUNTIES ARE IN TOR WATCH ATTM. DAYTIME HEATING DESTABLILIZES
AIRMASS EVEN MORE WITH AREA OF CONCERN THE STORMS THAT MOVE IN FROM
THE GULF IN THE 50 KT LLVL JET...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW PRES ALG NRN
GULF COAST HOLDS TOGETHER. PUBLIC ZONES COVER THE SITUATION VERY
WELL AND WILL NOT UPDATE EXCEPT FOR CHANGE IN WATCH BOX STATUS.

MARINE...SCA ALL AREAS WITH 25 KTS NEAR SHORE AND 30 KTS OFFSHORE.
OBS SHOW INCREASING WINDS WITH ST AUGUSTINE BUOY S 21G25 KT AND SEAS
5 FT BY 14Z. WILL KEEP SAME WORDING FOR UPDATE.

.JAX...
FL...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL NOON FLZ020>022-035.
     SCA FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH.
GA...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL NOON GAZ132>136-149>151-162-163.
     SCA ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

TRABERT/AB/JH

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-221800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
710 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR WESTERN THIRD OF AREA...
...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE...
...CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA WATERWAYS...

INCREASING MOISTURE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AHEAD OF A STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE INTO THE
EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING...AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GREATEST
RISKS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION TODAY AND MOVE INDOORS WHEN STORMS APPROACH.

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 40 MPH LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA WATERWAYS.

POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES TODAY MAY BRING RIVERS
IN THE FORECAST AREA CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL

GAZ165-166-221745-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1220 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE CAMDEN COUNTY THROUGH 1245
PM...

AT 1220 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
COLESBURG...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF KINGSLAND...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND COLESBURG...WOODBINE...TARBORO...HARRIETTS
BLUFF...WAVERLY AND DOVER BLUFF THROUGH 1245 PM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

HESS

FLZ020-022-GAZ162-163-221815-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1239 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN HAMILTON...NORTHERN
COLUMBIA...EASTERN ECHOLS AND SOUTHERN CLINCH COUNTIES THROUGH 115
PM...

AT 1239 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 27 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
FARGO...OR ABOUT 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF SUWANNEE SPRINGS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND FARGO THROUGH 115 PM EST. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS.

HESS

FLZ021-221815-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1245 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SUWANNEE COUNTY THROUGH 115
PM...

AT 1245 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER OBRIEN...OR ABOUT 13
MILES NORTHWEST OF ICHETUCKNEE SPRINGS STATE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND OBRIEN...MCALPIN...HILDRETH...BRANFORD...WELLBORN AND HOUSTON
THROUGH 115 PM EST. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

HESS

GAZ150-152>154-164>166-221915-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
115 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN WARE...CHARLTON...
EASTERN BRANTLEY...GLYNN AND CAMDEN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH 215 PM...

AT 115 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED FROM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THALMANN TO 28 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FOLKSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
PH. THIS LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND WINOKUR...WAYNESVILLE...THALMANN...RACE POND...EVERETT...
ATKINSON...HOMELAND AND WAVERLY THROUGH 215 PM EST. HAIL UP TO ONE
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

HESS

FLZ022-221845-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
118 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT COLUMBIA COUNTY THROUGH 145 PM...

AT 118 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED ABOUT 12 MILES NORTH OF LAKE
CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

SHASHY

FLZ022-023-030-035-036-221930-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
149 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT GILCHRIST...
BAKER...COLUMBIA...ALACHUA...AND UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM...

AT 149 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF TAYLOR TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF TRENTON...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARGO TO 4 MILES
NORTHWEST OF TRENTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WATERTOWN...FORT
WHITE...BELL...TAYLOR...OLUSTEE...OLENO STATE PARK...LULU AND HIGH
SPRINGS THROUGH 230 PM EST. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 50
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

SHASHY