Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

.CURRENTLY/SHORT-TERM...E COAST SEA BREEZE AND SW LOW LEVEL FLOW
RESULTING IN FAIRLY STRONG CONVERGENCE WITHIN 15-30 NM OF THE
COAST. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INITIATE AND MOVE N-NE
ALONG THE AXIS...WITH SOME STORMS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP HIGHER IN THESE AREAS FOR THE EVENING.
THINK CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE PAST EVENING HRS EPS SINCE IN AREAS
GENEARLLY BTN 301 AND I-95 THAT HAVENT BEEN TAPPED YET.

.FORECAST. SAT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF HIGHER MOISTURE
OVER THE GA ZONES. BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN ADDITION TO
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD ENHANCE STORM COVERAGE SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY. BY SUN...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FOCUS LITTLE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
OVER N FL SO MORE UNIFORM COVERAGE EXPECTED. MAY SEE CONVECTION
CONTINUE WELL INTO SUN NIGHT OVER NW ZONES DUE TO FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU AL. BY MON...SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE BUT STILL SOME
FORCING ALOFT ALONG WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO TO CONTINUE SCT
POP COVERAGE. GENERALLY HAVE PREFERRED ETA MOS GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT
TERM OTHERWISE USED MAV POPS.

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. WINDS MAY SURGE TO ABOUT 15 KT LATE NIGHT
HRS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES EXPECTED.

.EXTDD...TUE THRU FRI. LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE BERN U.S
WITH LOW-MID LEVEL SW FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE FORECAST REGION.
TROUGH WILL DIG AND SHIFT FURTHER E OVER THE SE U.S. COAST FORCING
MOST OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO WORK MAINLY E AND N OF THE AREA
BY THU. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE TN VALLEY AND DOWN INTO
PARTS OF GA. HAVE THEREFORE LEANED TOWARD LOWER RAIN CHANCES BY FRI.
OTHERWISE...HAVE CONTINUED PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR PRIMARILY
SCT AFTN AND EVENING POPS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG 72 90 72 90 / 30 50 30 40
SSI 74 87 73 88 / 30 40 30 40
JAX 73 92 73 90 / 30 40 30 50
SGJ 75 88 75 88 / 30 40 30 40
GNV 71 92 72 90 / 20 30 20 50
OCF 72 91 71 90 / 10 30 20 50

.JAX...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.

PUBLIC...SHASHY
MARINE/FIRE WX...CAMP

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-182230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1205 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EAST OF 441...AND OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM OCALA NORTH TO LAKE BUTLER AND
SANDERSON. STORMS WILL MOVE GENERALLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD-
TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING.
HOWEVER...BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AN ISOLATED STORM
MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH. STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING AND END BY
AROUND 2 AM.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

HESS/ARS

FLZ024-181930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
244 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN NASSAU
COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HAIL
VALID UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 244 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
13 MILES EAST OF HILLIARD TO 2 MILES WEST OF BRYCEVILLE...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND CALLAHAN...BRYCEVILLE AND HILLIARD THROUGH 330
PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO
55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

ZAPPE

FLZ040-181945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST
MARION COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 300 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 17 MILES WEST OF SUMMERFIELD...OR ABOUT
7 MILES NORTH OF INVERNESS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SUMMERFIELD...LAKE WEIR
AND BELLEVIEW THROUGH 345 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

ZAPPE

FLZ033-181930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
307 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ST. JOHNS
COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HAIL
VALID UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 307 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH PONTE VEDRA
BEACH...OR ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTH OF GUANA RIVER STATE PARK...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND VILANO BEACH...SOUTH PONTE VEDRA BEACH AND GUANA RIVER STATE
PARK THROUGH 330 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

ZAPPE

GAZ154-166-182000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
309 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GLYNN COUNTY
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HAIL VALID
UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 309 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTH OF DOVER BLUFF...OR ABOUT
7 MILES WEST OF HIGH POINT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND DOVER BLUFF...JEKYLL
ISLAND...DOCK JUNCTION...BRUNSWICK...COUNTRY CLUB ESTATES...ST.
SIMONS...SEA ISLAND AND GLYNN HAVEN THROUGH 400 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

ZAPPE

FLZ040-182015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
336 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARION COUNTY
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HAIL VALID
UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 336 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BELLEVIEW TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF OCALA AIRPORT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND OCALA AIRPORT...FLEMINGTON...REDDICK...
OCALA...LOWELL...MCINTOSH...BELLEVIEW W AND SPARR THROUGH 415 PM
EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER... EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO
55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

ZAPPE

FLZ033-182030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
339 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN ST.
JOHNS COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND
HAIL VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 339 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES WEST OF VILANO BEACH...OR ABOUT
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST. AUGUSTINE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND ST. AUGUSTINE...
VILANO BEACH...SOUTH PONTE VEDRA BEACH AND ANASTASIA THROUGH 430 PM
EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

ZAPPE