Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
255 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

.CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS IN THE ERN
ZONES WITH AREAS OF CONVERGENCE. WEAK 1019 MB LOW PRES NOTED IN
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. ANTICIPATE LOCALIZED FLOODING AND FRQ
LIGHTNING THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT FEW HRS.

.FORECAST...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE GFS AND ETA INDICATE MID
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM MID ATLC AREA SW TO THE CENTRAL FL
PANHANDLE. AT THE SFC...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT INDICATING WEAK
LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION TUE AND WED. SFC RIDGE REMAINS
NEAR CENTRAL FL AREA. MODEL PWATS STAY AROUND 2 INCHES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THEREFORE...WITH SUFFICENT FORCING ALOFT AND BRIEF PERIODS
OF ISOLATION WILL CONT THE LIKELY POPS INTO TUE...AND SLIGHT DROP
TO HIGH SCT POPS WED WHICH MAY NEED ADJUSTING UPWARD IN LATER SHIFTS.
WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS/ETA TEMPS...BUT GENERALLY PREFER ETA SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS AND ITS HIGHER POPS. BY THU...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH GETS MORE DIFFUSE AND RETROGRADES DUE TO EASTERLY WAVE OVER
THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MID-UPPER HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVER
LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MOVING INTO
CAROLINAS AND NRN GA THU AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN POPS CLOSE TO CLIMO ON
THU.

.EXTENDED...FRI THROUGH MON. WEAK FRONT WILL DROP A LITTLE FURTHER S
AS WILL SFC RIDGE. DEEP LAYER FLOW MAINLY FROM THE SW OVER THE
WEEKEND. MAY BEGIN TO SEE MORE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN
INTO MON AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS IN AS E COAST TROUGH MOVES INTO OFFSHORE
WATERS. EXPECT TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MON WITH
CLIMO TEMPS.

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. GENERALLY SLY WINDS WITH SLIGHT INCREASE
DURING THE NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG 70 86 71 90 / 40 60 30 40
SSI 74 85 75 86 / 40 60 30 40
JAX 71 86 72 88 / 50 70 30 50
SGJ 75 85 75 85 / 50 70 40 50
GNV 71 87 71 89 / 50 70 40 50
OCF 71 88 71 89 / 50 70 40 50

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.

PUBLIC...SHASHY
MARINE/FIRE WX...TRABERT

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-142200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1220 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM
THE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SEEK SAFE SHELTER WHEN SOUNDS OF THUNDER ARE HEARD.

THE ALTAMAHA RIVER HAS REACHED FLOOD STAGE AT BAXLEY AND CHARLOTTE
AND WILL CONTINUE AT THOSE LEVELS WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. PLEASE REFER
TO RIVER STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

PP/ARS

GAZ165-166-141930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
248 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CAMDEN COUNTY
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS VALID UNTIL 330 PM...

AT 248 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KINGSLAND...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND KINGSLAND...HARRIETTS BLUFF...KINGS BAY BASE...CUMBERLAND
ISLAND AND HIGH POINT THROUGH 330 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE. EXCESSIVE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING.

TRABERT

FLZ038-142045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
414 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FLAGLER COUNTY
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS...HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 414 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTH OF PALM COAST...OR ABOUT 3
MILES NORTHEAST OF BUNNELL...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND ESPANOLA AND PALM COAST
THROUGH 445 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

ZAPPE

FLZ022-030-142115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
433 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COLUMBIA AND
UNION COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS...HAIL AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 433 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBIA...OR ABOUT
10 MILES NORTHEAST OF ICHETUCKNEE SPRINGS STATE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
COLUMBIA...LAKE CITY...WATERTOWN AND LULU THROUGH 515 PM EDT. HAIL UP
TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAINS PRODUCING ISOLATED FLOODING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

ZAPPE

FLZ036-142115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
434 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALACHUA COUNTY
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS VALID UNTIL 515 PM...

AT 434 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 8 MILES NORTH OF GAINESVILLE
AIRPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WALDO THROUGH 515 PM EDT. IN ADDITION TO
WINDS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINS PRODUCING ISOLATED
FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH THIS STORM FOR THE NEXT HOUR.

DEESE

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