Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003

CURRENTLY...AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH TROF OVER THE E 1/2 AND RIDGE OVER THE W. HOWEVER...
UPPER FLOW OVER THE IMMEDIATE SE IS ALMOST ZONAL. AS A RESULT...SFC
FRONT RAPIDLY LOOSING ITS PUNCH AS EXPECTED. PRESENT BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM NR MID-ATLC TO NR KMCN. RETURN FLOW ALREADY BEGINNING
OVER AL AND MS...AND VIRTUALLY NO WIND SHIFT ACROSS FRONTAL SFC.

PUBLIC...EXPECT A BIT OF DRIER AIR TO BRIDGE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
FRONTAL SFC...BRINGING A 2-3 DEG REDUCTION IN TEMPS IN MANY AREAS.
POSITION OF UPPER TROF WILL DRAG TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM
CLAUDETTE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESP FL ZONES. THE
RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP H2O...BUT ALSO THICKER MID AND
HI CLOUDINESS. WHILE THE INCREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE COULD INCREASE
OVERALL PRECIP COVERAGE...THINK THE REDUCTION IN SFC HEATING FROM
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL SOMEWHAT COUNTERACT THIS. SO...
EXPECT MORE UNIFORM POP COVERAGE IN THE CLIMO RANGE OR JUST A TAD
ABOVE.

EXTENDED...SCALED BACK PRECIP MENTION IN LATER PERIODS. WILL WAIT
FOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON GFS TROPICAL WAVE TOWARD LATE WEEK
BEFORE BITING ON HIGHER POPS. EVEN IF WAVE IS AS STRONG AS
DEPICTED...BELIEVE BRUNT OF PRECIP WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND S FL.

MARINE...NO HEADLINES. BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS IN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO ACROSS GEORGIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WX...NO HEADLINES.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG   91  72  90  71 /  50  20  50  30
SSI   89  74  87  73 /  40  30  50  40
JAX   90  73  88  72 /  40  40  50  40
SGJ   89  75  87  73 /  40  40  50  40
GNV   91  71  89  71 /  50  40  50  40
OCF   91  71  89  71 /  50  30  50  40

.JAX...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.

CARROLL/PETERSON

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-130000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
130 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE FRONTS AS THEY MOVE INLAND. THE SEA BREEZE MERGER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR...THEN STORMS
WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT THAT MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS. ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR...PARTICULARLY NEAR AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 IN FLORIDA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS AND MAY APPROACH FLOOD
STAGE WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE REFER
TO RIVER STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
HAS REACHED FLOOD STAGE AT BAXLEY AND WILL CONTINUE AT THOSE LEVELS
WITH MINIMAL IMPACT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF
WARNING ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ENYEDI

FLZ025-122015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
348 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST
DUVAL COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND
HAIL VALID UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 348 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES NORTH OF BAYARD...OR ABOUT 6
MILES SOUTH OF UNF...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND BAYARD...SAN PABLO...UNF
AND ARLINGTON THROUGH 415 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

ZAPPE

FLZ025-032-122045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
357 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN CLAY
COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST DUVAL COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS...
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 357 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOCTORS INLET...OR ABOUT 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ORANGE PARK...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. THIS WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND DOCTORS INLET...ORANGE PARK...BELLAIR-MEADOWBROOK
TERRACE...JACKSONVILLE HEIGHTS AND ORTEGA THROUGH 445 PM EDT. HAIL UP
TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

ZAPPE

FLZ025-032-122045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
357 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN CLAY
COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST DUVAL COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS...
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 357 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOCTORS INLET...OR
ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ORANGE PARK...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.
THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND DOCTORS INLET...ORANGE
PARK...BELLAIR-MEADOWBROOK TERRACE...JACKSONVILLE HEIGHTS AND ORTEGA
THROUGH 445 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

ZAPPE

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