Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EDT EDT WED JUL 9 2003

PUBLIC...OUR HOT AND STAGNANT PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN CONTROL. THE DIFFERNCE TODAY IS THAT TEMPS
ALOFT (AT 500 MB) HAVE COOLED AND PWATS WERE UP TO 1.72 INCHES
MAKING THE ATMOSPHERE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. BOTH WEST AND EAST
COAST SEABREEZES ACTIVE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS FL CWA. WILL GO WITH
CHC POPS EARLY THIS EVE FOR FL CWA AND SLGT CHC GA CWA. AS FAR
AS THURSDAY GOES...SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH NEAR CLIMO POPS/ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS. WILL GO WITH MENTION OF HEAT INDICES IN ZONES FOR
ONE MORE DAY. EXPECT THESE INDICES TO GO DOWN TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK. AS COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH APPROACH LATE FRIDAY/SAT...
WILL RAISE POPS TO 50 PCT ACROSS THE BOARD SATURDAY. FRONT STALLS
AND BEGINS TO WASH OUT ACROSS SE GA/NE FL SATURDAY.

EXTENDED...GFS HAS FRONT WASHING OUT AND LIFTING NORTH WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE SURFACE/ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STAYS NORTH OF THE CWA RESULTING IN A SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE MRF IS INDICATING A LOT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE GULF (FROM CLAUDETTE) BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF CLAUDETTE WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR THE
EXTENDED. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS INDICATING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS/POPS
WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.

MARINE...NO HEADLINES. WITH NOCTURNAL SURGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS WILL GO WITH A SUSTAINED 15 KNOTS THOSE TIMES OTHERWISE
NO OTHER CONCERNS.

FIRE WX...NO CONCERNS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG 74 93 73 92 / 20 40 20 40
SSI 76 90 75 90 / 20 40 20 40
JAX 75 92 74 93 / 20 40 20 40
SGJ 77 91 75 90 / 20 40 20 40
GNV 73 93 72 92 / 20 40 20 40
OCF 72 93 72 92 / 20 40 20 40

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.

PP/JH

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-092100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1210 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

...HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE MID 90S IN MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WHEN COMBINED WITH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES. PERSONS
WHO WORK OUTDOORS SHOULD TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE TO REST AND
REPLENISH FLUIDS.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS RESULTING
IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. OTHER CONCERNS WILL BE
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLY TO
50 MPH.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING...MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

PP/JH

FLZ040-091900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
214 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MARION COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS...HAIL AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 3 PM...

AT 214 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 7 MILES EAST OF MOSS BLUFF...OR ABOUT 8
MILES SOUTH OF JUNIPER SPRINGS...NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND OCKLAWAHA AND MOSS BLUFF
THROUGH 300 PM EDT. HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR...HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. PONDING OF ROADWAYS IS POSSIBLE ALONG
ROADWAYS IN THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST.

HESS