Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003

CONVECTION BEGAN FIRING BY NOON ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS A
RESULT OF VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE
PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE SEABREEZE
CONVECTION THAT IS YET TO DEVELOP AND WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING.

RAIN COOLED AIR HELPED TO LOWER THE MIN TEMPS LAST NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. WILL GO WITH THE LOWER
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS IN
SIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DISRUPT THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL KEEP POPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
THE GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORIES. SFC RIDGE SAGS SOUTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AND A FRONT COMES TO REST NORTH OF THE AREA THRU MONDAY. A
SIMILAR SCENARIO LAST WEEK RESULTED IN SOME STRONG DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. GFS SHOWS H5 LOW DVLPG OVER
ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY INDUCING A TROF IN WRN GULF OF MEXICO THAT
PERSISTS THRU 120 HOURS. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY
KEEPS THE CWA IN MOIST LOW/MID LEVEL SW FLOW THRU MID WEEK. POPS
WILL REMAIN IN 40-60% RANGE THRU THE EXTENDED.

MARINE...WINDS AT THE BUOYS ARE AROUND 10 KT WITH GRAYS REEF COMING
IN A LITTLE HIGHER. SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK AND
BACKING TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SEA BREEZE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG 70 89 72 89 / 60 60 30 50
SSI 75 87 75 87 / 60 60 40 50
JAX 71 90 72 89 / 60 60 40 50
SGJ 73 87 73 87 / 60 50 40 50
GNV 70 91 71 90 / 60 60 30 50
OCF 70 91 71 91 / 60 60 30 50

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.

TRABERT/ZAPPE

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-132200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
144 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. STORM MOTION
WILL BE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH WITH EASTERN ZONES AND
COASTAL AREAS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY DEVELOPING
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

TRABERT

FLZ020>022-131945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
238 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
HAMILTON...SUWANNEE...AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR WHITE SPRINGS AND THE I-75 AND I-10
JUNCTION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WITH MINOR WIND
DAMAGE POSSIBLE...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  TAKE SHELTER
IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS NEAR THESE STORMS.  IF DRIVING USE CAUTION AS
HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE FLOODING IN LOW SPOTS.  MOVEMENT IS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

MZ

FLZ035-036-131945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
301 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GILCHRIST AND
WESTERN ALACHUA COUNTIES...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TRENTON AND NEWBERRY AREAS
THROUGH 4 PM.  GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.  ALSO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR.  TAKE SHELTER IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS NEAR THESE
STORMS.  IF DRIVING USE CAUTION AS HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE FLOODING IN
LOW SPOTS.  MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

MZ

FLZ035-132045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
405 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
GILCHRIST COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST NORTH OF BELL WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF
UP TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE. VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR. TAKE SHELTER IF YOU ARE
OUTDOORS NEAR THESE STORMS.  IF DRIVING USE CAUTION AS HEAVY RAIN
MAY CAUSE FLOODING IN LOW SPOTS.  MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

MZ