Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
255 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003

MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE IS ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS
NE FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. QUITE A STRONG CLUSTER IS MOVING
THROUGH THE GAINESVILLE/SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA. LO/MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW
COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL MAKE THIS A
VERY ACTIVE EVENING FOR STORMS. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FIRST
PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE CWA.
INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY WILL AND LESS INSTABILITY WILL LESSEN
THE CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS. THE CAPE IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
1000 J/KG ON FRIDAY WHEREAS ITS ABOVE 3500 J/KG THIS AFTN. MORE OF
THE SAME ON SATURDAY AND WILL GO WITH 50% POPS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA ON FRI/SAT AFTERNOONS.

MARINE...BUOY 41012 HAS CONSISTENTLY REPORTED 10-15 KT WITH 3 FT
SEAS. SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG 72 89 71 89 / 50 50 40 40
SSI 75 86 76 87 / 50 50 40 40
JAX 73 89 72 90 / 60 50 40 40
SGJ 74 86 73 86 / 60 50 40 40
GNV 72 90 71 91 / 60 50 40 40
OCF 72 90 71 91 / 60 50 40 40

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.

MKT/EZ

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-122130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1221 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONTS EARLY
THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THESE
STORMS WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING. ISOLATED PULSE
SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WOULD BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER STORM
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR
YOUR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

TRABERT

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FLZ038-122130-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
446 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN FLAGLER
COUNTY FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH VALID UNTIL
530 PM EDT...

AT 446 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER WESTERN FLAGLER
COUNTY...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PALATKA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND ANDALUSIA THROUGH 530 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH
IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

DEESE

FLZ038-122130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
446 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN FLAGLER
COUNTY FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH VALID UNTIL
530 PM EDT...

AT 446 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER WESTERN FLAGLER
COUNTY...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PALATKA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND ANDALUSIA THROUGH 530 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH
IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

DEESE

GAZ165-122145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
458 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN CAMDEN
COUNTY FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH VALID UNTIL
545 PM EDT...

AT 458 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WOODBINE...OR ABOUT 15 MILES WEST OF KINGSLAND...MOVING NORTH AT 10
MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND WOODBINE THROUGH 545 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

DEESE

FLZ032-033-037-122130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
500 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PUTNAM COUNTY...

AT 500 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PICOLATA...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF PALATKA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND PICOLATA...GREEN COVE SPRINGS...SWITZERLAND AND FRUIT
COVE THROUGH 530 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

TRABERT

FLZ032-033-037-122130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
500 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PUTNAM...CLAY AND ST JOHNS
COUNTIES...

AT 500 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PICOLATA...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF PALATKA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND PICOLATA...GREEN COVE SPRINGS...SWITZERLAND AND FRUIT
COVE THROUGH 530 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

TRABERT