Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 EDT TUE JUN 10 2003

CU FIELD DOMINATES THE SKY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWING SOME BUILDUPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN NE FLORIDA. EXCEPTION
IS FLAGLER COUNTY WHERE CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK IS
BLOCKING LLVL DEVELOPMENT. SFC TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS JAX TO LAKE
CITY. WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS ALLOWING SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG
BOTH COASTS.

PUBLIC...WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM LOWER 70S TO LOWER 90S EACH DAY. THE
PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT MID LEVELS WILL KEEP STORMS TO A
MINIMUM THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SFC RIDGE WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD TO THE
GA/FL BORDER BY THE WEEKEND. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS ENDING UP IN MIDDLE OF CWA GENERALLY EAST OF I-
75. WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF...FL PENINSULA
AND SWRN ATLANTIC BY TONIGHT UNTIL NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP THE 20-30% POPS THROUGH WED THEN MOISTURE
INCREASES THU-FRI AND WILL GO WITH 40% POPS.

MARINE...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER AREA WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SE
WINDS. BUOY 41012 EAST OF ST AUGUSTINE SHOWS SE 4G6 WITH 2 FT SEAS.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG 70 94 70 91 / 10 30 30 40
SSI 74 87 74 86 / 10 20 10 30
JAX 72 92 72 90 / 10 20 10 30
SGJ 74 87 74 87 / 10 20 10 30
GNV 70 94 70 90 / 10 30 30 40
OCF 71 93 71 90 / 10 30 30 40

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.

TRABERT/ZAPPE

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-102100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1204 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA ALONG OR JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 75. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. MOVE INSIDE AT THE
FIRST SIGN OF OMINOUS SKIES OR SOUNDS OF THUNDER.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

MKT