Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2003

ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF GULF OF MEXICO WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A VERY SOGGY DAY ACROSS CWA. PRECIP WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AND SHIFTING NORTHWARD AS FRONT TEMPORARILY LIFTS
OUT. FOR THIS REASON HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER NORTH PART OF CWA BUT
ONLY TO INDICATE THAT THERE MIGHT BE AT LEAST SOME BREAK IN PRECIP
OVER SOUTHERN PART LATER IN DAY.

AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT... OUR RECALCITRANT FRONT ONCE MORE
HEADS SOUTHWARD BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP BEFORE FINALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH OF MOST OF CWA LATE SUNDAY.

TEMPS TODAY ARE SHADED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR MINIMAL
INSOLATION DESPITE RETURN TO WARM SECTOR AND ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NEW RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
WHEN THE FRONT MAKES ITS MOVE SOUTHWARD.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE TO OUR N...A WARM FRONT TO OUR S...AND
AND AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH ARE CREATING A TIGHT PGRAD OVER OUR
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS. NLY WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED NEAR 15KTS
AT SAUF1 SINCE 01Z. FURTHER OFFSHORE BUOY 41012 HAS BEEN REPORTING
ESE WINDS JUST NOW INCREASING TO 16KT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2-4FT. GFS
IS NOT DEPICTING COASTAL TROUGH WELL SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MESOETA
FOR DIRECTIONAL GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL MOST LIKELY WORD
FIRST PERIOD FOR 10-15 KTS...MAYBE A SOLID 15KTS DEPENDING ON OBS
NEAR ISSUANCE TIME. WINDS VEER S TODAY ONCE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
OVER THE WATERS. AS LOW PRESS DEVELOPS TO OUR N TONIGHT...WINDS
INCREASE TO SCEC CONDITIONS BY SUN MORNING. SCEC/MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE MON MORNING. HIGH PRESS BUILDS JUST N OF THE
WATERS MON AFTN INTO TUE AS WINDS/SEAS FALL BLO HEADLINE CRITERION.
FLOW BEGINS TO VEER LATE TUE DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED WHEN SCEC WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
ONCE AGAIN.

FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES. WILL MENTION BREEZY CONDITIONS TOMORROW
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO LOW CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL CALL FOR LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.

FCSTID =    1
AMG   65  55  72  45 / 100  80  10  20
SSI   64  57  69  49 / 100  80  30  20
JAX   70  61  73  48 / 100  70  40  20
SGJ   69  61  71  52 /  90  70  60  30
GNV   72  61  74  51 /  90  70  60  30
OCF   73  62  74  53 /  70  70  70  30

.JAX...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.

PUBLIC...LETRO
MARINE/FIRE WX...BROYLES

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-282100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1210 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

RECENT RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED RISES ON SEVERAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
RIVERS. THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AT BAXLEY IS NOW AT FLOOD STAGE AND
INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD STAY IN TOUCH WITH LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL MEAN THAT FLOODING WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
ON SOME RIVERS IN SOUTH GEORGIA.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

FLZ035-036-011000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
436 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2003

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT GILCHRIST AND WESTERN ALACHUA
COUNTIES THROUGH 5 AM...

AT 436 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 12 MILES WEST OF TRENTON...OR ABOUT 8
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CROSS CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND BELL...NEWBERRY
AND HIGH SPRINGS THROUGH 500 AM EST. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. PLEASE
TAKE SHELTER IF LIGHTNING IS IN YOUR AREA.

BROYLES