Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
215 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2003

OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER N FL BECOMING DIFFUSE WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE
ACROSS BOUNDARY.  TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  88D RADARS SHOW SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING
OVER MARION COUNTY WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT.

WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
E AND BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.  FRONT OVER AREA WILL LIFT
NORTH SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT OVER N GA.  AS LOW
MOVES TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE BACK INTO
AREA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. FRONT
FINALLY MOVES SOUTH OF AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW NEAR GREAT
LAKES MOVES TO EAST COAST BRINGING A DRIER NW FLOW TO THE SE.
TEMPS AND POPS LOOK TO BE NEAR CLIMO THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  PATCHY DENSE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING.

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES THROUGH PERIOD.  LIGHT S-SE FLOW WILL BECOME
OFFSHORE AS COLD FRONT RETURNS TO AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG 63 88 67 88 / 10 20 30 30
SSI 70 84 70 86 / 10 20 20 30
JAX 67 89 68 88 / 20 20 20 20
SGJ 71 86 72 86 / 20 20 20 20
GNV 66 90 66 90 / 30 20 30 20
OCF 67 90 66 91 / 30 20 30 20

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.

MZ/PC

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-242300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1130 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES...

A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.  A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES
SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH SPOTTERS ARE
REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IN THE EVENT THAT WARNINGS ARE ISSUED IN
THEIR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

HESS

FLZ040-242100-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
419 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEAST MARION COUNTY THROUGH 5
PM EDT...

AT 419 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MCCOY...WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND FORT MCCOY THROUGH 500 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

ZAPPE

FLZ024-242130-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
444 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH
530 PM EDT...

AT 444 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HILLIARD...WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND HILLIARD THROUGH 530 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER... EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

ZAPPE

FLZ037-242130-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
447 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN PUTNAM COUNTY THROUGH
530 PM EDT...

AT 447 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE COMO...OR
ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTH OF POMONA PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND POMONA PARK...LAKE
COMO AND CRESCENT CITY THROUGH 530 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH
IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

ZAPPE

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