Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAINLY COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER INLAND OVER SE GA WHERE AIRMASS IS MORE UNSTABLE.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO MID 80S OVER
INLAND SE GA.

UPPER SHORT WAVE NOW PUSHING ACROSS AREA IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
NE.  DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY PREVIOUS MODELS IS EAST OF AREA
WITH DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN COUNTIES.  FOR TONIGHT WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS ALONG NE FL COASTAL AREAS AND SE GA WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER INLAND NE FL.  WILL MENTION FOG TONIGHT AS CLOUDS
CLEAR IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORT WAVE AND WINDS DROP OFF.  FRIDAY
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CONVECTION AS NVA MOVES INTO AREA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES WHERE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PIN
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST.  MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING VORT MAX
MOVING INTO AREA FROM THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A POP
OVERNIGHT AS WEAKENING CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO NW SECTIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO AREA SATURDAY AND WEAKEN.  WITH
FRONT AND SEABREEZE FRONT WILL KEEP A SMALL POP FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.  SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH FRONT DISSIPATING OVER N FL AND
UPPER SHORT WAVE RIDGING.  WILL PUT CHANCE POPS BACK IN FORECAST
FOR EXTENDED PERIOD AS A RETURN FLOW RETURNS AND MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN WITH SEABREEZE BEING THE MAIN TRIGGER.  SOUNDS LIKE
SUMMER WEATHER IS CREEPING UP ON US.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS.

.MARINE...LOW PRES SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE NE
FL COAST AT THE MOMENT. THIS WL KEEP THE HIGHER WINDS/SEAS JUST N
INTO THE CHS WATERS. AND EVEN WITH THE AVN WRAPAROUND WIND FCST OF
20-25 KTS THE SEAS IN THE WNAWAVE ONLY TOP OUT AT 5 FT. SO WL MAX
OUT WRAPAROUND WINDS AT 15 KTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS 3 TO 5
FT...AND DROP THE HEADLINE OF SCEC. REST OF MARINE FCST LOOKS TO
HAVE 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS 5 FT OR LESS.

.FIRE WX...NO HEADLINES REQUIRED...ALHTOUGH SAT AFTN RHS WL FALL
INTO THE 30S ACRS NE FL AND UPR 20S ACRS SE GA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG 64 88 65 86 / 30 10 30 20
SSI 65 80 67 81 / 30 20 20 20
JAX 66 86 67 85 / 30 20 20 30
SGJ 68 81 67 81 / 30 20 20 30
GNV 63 87 65 87 / 20 10 20 20
OCF 64 87 65 88 / 20 10 20 20

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.

ZIBURA/HESS

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-012200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1126 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75
CORRIDOR. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

HESS

GAZ164-012145-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
453 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN CHARLTON COUNTY...

AT 453 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER CHARLTON COUNTY...OR ABOUT 15 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HILLIARD...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS WEST OF SAINT GEORGE THROUGH 545
PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH.

DEESE

GAZ132-012130-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
503 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT COFFEE COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM
EDT...

AT 503 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTH OF NICHOLLS...OR ABOUT 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALMA...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND NICHOLLS THROUGH 530 PM
EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

CAMP