Severe Thunderstorm Warning 731, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
322 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2003

MAIN CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE GAUGING THE RESULTS FROM THE VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL S/W AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
CWA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY.

CURRENTLY...SFC LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF MEM WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK TO THE SW NEAR KTXK AND KDFW.
CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS JUST TO THE NW OF THE SFC
LOW...BASICALLY ON THE AR/MO STATE LINE AND IS QUICKLY PUSHING TO
THE SE. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND IS EVIDENT BY THE QUICK INCREASE IN STRATUS OVER N LA AND AC DECK
OVER N MS. A FEW BANDS OF TSRA ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER E TN AND N
MS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ONE ISOLATED TS TRAILING BACK ALONG THE
FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
PUSHING THE VORT CENTER SE ACROSS N MS THROUGH 18Z. IT WILL BE
WITHIN THIS INTENSE FORCING REGION THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
WILL EXIST...WITH A DRAMATIC SHIFT TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES THE FARTHER
S YOU GO. OVER MY CWA...THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING MESURABLE PRECIP
WILL BE ALONG A GRENADA TO COLUMBUS LINE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
REMAINING ON THE LOW SIDE. GENERALLY < 0.2 IN. WILL MENTION THUNDER
ONLY IN THAT GENERAL LOCATION DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE STRONG
FORCING. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY
MUCAPES 400-800 J/KG. HOWEVER THIS IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
TSRA IF CLOSE TO THE STRONG FORCING. AS THESE TSRA MOVE THROUGH THE
NE CWA EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF
SMALL PEA SIZED HAIL.

THIS SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AND WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
WILL DRAMATICALLY LOWER POPS AND ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ONE CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WILL BE HOW LONG THE LOW CLOUDS HANG AROUND. ALL MOS GUIDANCE BRINGS
IN CLEAR SKIES BY 00Z. I HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING THAT SOLUTION AS
THE ETA MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A 925 MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
CWA. TYPICALLY THIS THERMAL AXIS MEANS THAT LOW CLOUDS WOULD LINGER
UNTIL IT ERODES. SO WITH THIS FEATURE IN MIND...WILL HOLD ONTO
CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR SAT...SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF BUT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS SUBSIDENT FLOW BECOMES DOMINANT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MON. ANOTHER
RE-INFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BY TUE AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE AND
PRECIP WORDING AS MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT ANY
DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

JAN EB 070/052 073/045 076 36400
    NUBBB 048/079 052/075 048/073 044/069 00000000000
MEI WB 070/051 072/043 075 36500
    NUBBB 048/078 052/076 049/074 043/068 00000000000

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

36

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
181017-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
517 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A GREENWOOD TO KOSCIUSKO TO A MACON
LINE. NONE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE MOVING
OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTAIN FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.