Severe Thunderstorm Warning 706, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2003

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN GULF INTO THE CNTRL
GULF COAST REGION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST TODAY AND PROMOTE SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTN/EVNG TSTM ACTIVITY (40-50 POPS) OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH COVERAGE A BIT GREATER OVER SRN AND ERN PORTIONS. BASED ON
SEVERITY OF SOME STORMS YDAY IN A SIMILAR PATTERN...WORDING IN HWO
WILL BE ENHANCED TO CONVEY SVR RISK FOR TODAY. TOUGHEST HEAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE DELTA REGION WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT
105 DEG F. DRY BULB TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY BECAUSE
OF AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS...THOUGH NOT AS LOW AS MET GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS ALL AREAS < 90
DEG F.

AFTER TODAY...THE GFS/UKMET/ETA ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL CONTINUE WWD WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE SETTING
(500MB TEMPS -4 DEG C). A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SWD ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND THEN STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY.
BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE TOUGH TO SUSTAIN
IN THE HARSH MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND HAVE REDUCED POPS SOME FOR
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME. IN ANY CASE...SHOULD SEE BEST COVERAGE OF ANY
STORMS OVER SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD HAVE LESS INFLUENCE. THE SAME THINKING HOLDS TRUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP JUST TO OUR NORTH. HAVE ADJUSTED
PRECIP/WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

43

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
222031-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
331 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY WEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE AND ALONG HIGHWAY
84 IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY WEST OF A GREENWOOD TO VICKSBURG TO NATCHEZ
LINE. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ON THE LOW SIDE AS CURRENT
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW MORE HOURS AND DIMINISH BY 8 PM AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST. ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

...SEASONAL THREATS...
ONCE AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S OVER THE
DELTA REGION OF MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
AND RESULT IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. PERSONS WORKING OUTDOORS SHOULD WEAR LIGHT
CLOTHING...TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER TO HELP
AVOID HEAT EXHAUSTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY BE
NEEDED FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1031 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0340 PM    OVETT                     MS   WIND DAMAGE
08/20/03   JONES                          SEVERAL TREES AND
                                          POWERLINES DOWN. REPORTED
                                          BY ELECTRIC POWER
                                          ASSOCIATION.

0415 PM    2 N OAK GROVE             MS   0.88 INCH HAIL
08/20/03   LAMAR                          REPORTED BY LAMAR COUNTY
                                          EMA.

0540 PM    4 S CARNES                MS   WIND DAMAGE
08/20/03   FORREST                        SEVERAL TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY FORREST
                                          COUNTY EMA.

0655 PM    NEW HEBRON                MS   WIND DAMAGE
08/20/03   LAWRENCE                       A FEW TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY ELECTRIC
                                          POWER ASSOCIATION.

0700 PM    BUSH                      MS   WIND DAMAGE
08/20/03   SIMPSON                        A FEW TREES DOWN. PUBLIC
                                          REPORT.