Severe Thunderstorm Warning 686, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
325 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2003

FAIRLY INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AS UPPER PATTERN
CHANGES AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST.

FOR THIS EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD ON
ACROSS THE NW CWA AS THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN A 850MB THETA E
AXIS. UPPER SUPPORT IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE OVER THE CWA AND THESE
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BETWEEN 8-9 PM. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE W OF
55 AND N 20 AND ACROSS THE SE FEW COUNTIES. THESE ARE THE LOCATIONS
THAT WERE NOT EFFECTED BY THE EARLY MORNING MCS AND CLOUD COVER.

FOR WED...WEAK UPPER INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WILL BRING BETTER RAIN
CHANCES TO THE EAST AND SE AREAS. THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY FIRING
CONVECTION OVER AL/GA. I EXPECT THIS UPPER FEATURE TO BE MORE
PRODUCTIVE ON WED AS IT WILL COMBINE WITH A DECENT 850 THETA E RIDGE
OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE 50S E/SE AND TAPER TO 20S NW.
THE NW WILL STILL BE UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE
SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE ISOLATED
RANGE.

FOR THU...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE OF A SHEAR AXIS AND
REMAIN OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA. POPS WILL BE SIMILAR AS WED...BUT
WILL INCREASE THE NW TO 30 AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER TO
THE WEST AND HAVE LESS IMPACT ON OUR REGION.

BY FRI...UPPER SHEAR AXIS WILL BE LINGERING OVER THE CWA AND A WEAK
FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. HAVE GONE SCT
POPS EVERYWHERE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR THE N LOCATIONS. AS WE
GET INTO SAT. SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWLY NOSING INTO THE CWA. BEST
UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE ALONG AND S OF I-20 AND THIS WILL BE THE
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST POPS.

THE EXTENDED...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLES...INDICATE
THAT A PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS THROUGH TUE. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE
LINGERING SFC FRONT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA BY SUN...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH. WILL GO WITH NO POPS NORTH AND
SCT CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

CONCERNING TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TODAY SHOULD BE OUR LAST DAY
WITH 95-98 DEGREE READINGS OVER THE WEST AND DELTA REGIONS. ALL
MODELS INDICATE THE 850 THERMAL AXIS SHIFTING WEST LEAVING AREA
850MB TEMPS 16-17C. THIS SHOULD YIELD AFTERNOON TEMPS
90-93...BASICALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR MID AUG. FOR WED...WEST OF THE
RIVER AND THE DELTA AREAS WILL STILL SEE THE HIGHEST TEMPS FOR ONE
MORE DAY...BASICALLY 93-95 AS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL AXIS RETREATS
WEST. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOWER 70 DEWPTS SHOULD GIVE US HEAT
INDICES 102-106. WITH THIS...WILL HEADLINE HEAT INDICES IN THE
ZONES.

JAN GT 074/092 073/090 073 36143
    BBBBB 091/071 091/070 091/070 091/070 091 54433333333
MEI TT 073/091 072/090 072 36153
    BBBBB 091/071 091/070 091/069 091/069 091 54433333333

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

36

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
201942-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
242 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA  THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A VERY MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. OLD BOUNDARIES...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY AND CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...FLOODING...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA WEDNESDAY WILL BE
FUELED BY EXTREMELY MOIST AIR. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SLOW
MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SMALL AREAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. PONDING OF WATER
IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ON ROADS MAY OCCUR.

...SEASONAL THREATS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST  AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO REACH VALUES NEAR 105...MOST WILL RANGE
FROM 103 TO 106 DEGREES. PERSONS WORKING OUTDOORS SHOULD WEAR
LIGHT CLOTHING...TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER
TO HELP AVOID HEAT EXHAUSTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.