Severe Thunderstorm Warning 658, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2003

THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY FIRING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
INDIANOLA IN SUNFLOWER COUNTY TO PORTERVILLE IN KEMPER COUNTY.
UPSTREAM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OUR MOIST AIRMASS HAS
BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A LITTLE LESS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED AROUND STARKVILLE AND COLUMBUS THIS EVENING AS EARLIER
ACTIVITY HAS STABILIZED CONDITIONS IN THAT AREA.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WL DEEPEN
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS IT DOES...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS NRN MISSISSIPPI AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE INTO THE DELTA REGION THURSDAY MORNING AND
BE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT WONT BE MUCH COOLER BUT SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEW
PTS INTO THE MID 60S WILL FILTER INTO OUR AREA AND END OUR RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXTENDED: SUN-WED GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND DROPS IT RAPIDLY
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY. BOTH LOWS THEN
LINGER OVER OUR AREA AND WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NEITHER
CANADIAN/ECMWF/NOGAPS MODELS DEVELOP THESE FEATURES BUT MIANTAIN THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.
WITH CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME...WL LEAN TOWARD CLIMO. WL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD RETURN AND
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A STORM OR TWO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE SEA BREEZE AND OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA FORCING. AS DEEPER MOISTURE
SPREADS BACK ACROSS THE AREA MON-WED...WL GO CHC POPS AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS.

IN OUTLOOK...GFS DEPICTS A PATTERN CHANGE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE LARGE PERSISTENT RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE ROCKIES
REGION SHIFTING EAST OVER OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND GENERALLY LOWER POPS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN BB 073/090 069/092 070 40431
    BBBEE 093/070 092/070 090/071 089/071 091 10102232433
MEI BB 072/090 068/092 069 40431
    BBBEE 093/067 092/068 091/070 089/070 091 10102232433

22

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
071956-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
256 PM CDT WED AUG 06 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BASTROP...TO YAZOO
CITY TO WEST POINT. THE MAIN RISK FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FROM HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED AGAIN THURSDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
TWENTY...WHILE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECT IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT...A SOUTHWARD MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STRONG ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AT THE
SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. OTHER STORMS ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA COULD ALSO
BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. STORMS IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN LIKE OF
CONVECTION WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH A GOOD PORTION
OF THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD LAST SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

...FLOODING...
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...GENERALLY IN AREAS BOTH ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE FIFTY-FIFTY AND ALONG AND NORTH INTERSTATE TWENTY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE AREAS OF
MISSISSIPPI ARE EXPECTED TO REPEATEDLY AFFECT THE SAME LOCATIONS
AS THEY TRACK TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS SCENARIO WILL
RESULT IN LOCALIZED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
340 PM CDT WED AUG 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0330 PM                              MS   WIND DAMAGE
08/06/03   NESHOBA                        POWERLINES DOWN. REPORTED
                                          BY CENTRAL ELECTRIC POWER
                                          ASSOCIATION.