Severe Thunderstorm Warning 633, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2003

CURRENTLY THE LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINED CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE A BROKEN BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUSHING ACROSS THE DELTA REGION TOWARD CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DAYTIME HEATING HAS WARMED
MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE LOWER 90S. DEW PT TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING
INTO THE MID 70S. AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH OUR AREA
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH. THE STRONGEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS FROM NERN LA INTO NRN MS
AND IS JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN
AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS EVENING. WL GO LIKELY POPS
NORTH AND CENTRAL ZONES THIS EVENING WITH CHC SOUTH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA...SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN OUR AREA AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY RESULTING IN A LOWER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GFS IS STILL SHOWING ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA.
DRIER AIR IS INDICATED BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL RESULT IN LOWER
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

PRELIM NUMBERS
JAN TB 073/090 073/091 072 22553
    EEBBB 089/073 090/072 092/073 092/071 092 32434433222
MEI TB 072/090 071/090 071 22453
    EEBBB 089/073 090/072 092/071 092/070 091 32434333222

AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

22

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
031931-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
231 PM CDT SAT AUG 02 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 TO 70 MPH. SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTENING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT THE STORMS THAT
OCCUR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TO BE NON SEVERE. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT
A REPEAT OF THE SCENARIO ABOVE.

THE MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ARE ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHERMORE...THE
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS HAS BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS THE
DISTURBANCES SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE
AREA...ONLY TO REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH. ON SUNDAY...THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
JET POSITIONING APPEAR TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAN TODAY. THEREFORE...KEEPING THE
MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.

...FLOODING...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PONDING
OF WATER ON AREA ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS HEAVY RAINS ACCUMULATE ON THE SURFACES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BECOME SEVERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WIND GUSTS TO 60 TO 70 MPH
CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

ANOTHER SERIES OF STRONG DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS THESE SYSTEMS MOVE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE
AREA BOTH DAYS...THE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRONG AND
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
319 PM CDT SAT AUG 02 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0225 PM    CLEVELAND                 MS   WIND DAMAGE
08/02/03   BOLIVAR                        NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY BOLIVAR
                                          COUNTY EMA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
407 PM CDT SAT AUG 02 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0325 PM    MONEY                     MS   WIND DAMAGE
08/02/03   LEFLORE                        TREES AND A POWERLINE
                                          DOWN ON MONEY RD.
                                          REPORTED BY LEFLORE
                                          COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE.