Severe Thunderstorm Warning 527, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1020 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2003

WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF 40 POPS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-20 AND LOWER TO 30 ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL ALSO MENTION
TEMPS AROUND 90 OR LOWER 90S EVERYWHERE...AS CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 80S.

THE BIG REASON FOR THE UPDATE IS TO COVER THE INCREASING SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND ARE INDICATING HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TS CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS.
BASICALLY THE LAPSE RATES (L/R) ARE REALLY IMPRESSIVE WITH VERTICAL
TOTALS RUNNING 28 TO 29 C AND THE 700-500 MB L/RS 7 C/KM. WITH
TEMPS/DEWPTS AROUND 91/73...12Z SOUNDINGS YIELD SBCAPES NEAR 4300
AND MORE IMPRESSIVELY MLCAPES AROUND 4100 THE TRIGGER FOR THIS
AFTERNOONS CONVECTION WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT IS DRIVING
CONVECTION OVER E OK AND NW AR. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THAT A 850
THETA E RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE N FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUPPLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. WITH THIS IN
MIND...BEST TS CHANCES SEEM TO BE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AND
N OF I-20. WILL MENTION SVR STORMS IN NORTHERN ZONES AT THIS TIME.

I AM ANTICIPATED A SVR TS WATCH ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY WHEN THE INITIATION AREA CAN BE
PINPOINTED.

WILL ALSO UPDATE THE HWO TO INCREASE THE SVR POTENTIAL WORDING. ALL
UPDATES SHOULD BE OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

36

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
141607-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1107 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
84. HOWEVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS
AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG A
VERY SLOW MOVING FRONT IS DRIVING THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO PULL PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 90S. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
SEVERAL STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE. AGAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER
THE SAME AREAS...MAY ALSO LEAD TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
219 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0210 PM    WEST POINT                MS   WIND DAMAGE
07/13/03   CLAY                           POWERLINES DOWN. REPORTED
                                          BY POLICE.