Severe Thunderstorm Warning 525, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PACKAGE...TEMPS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...RAIN
CHANCES LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

CURRENTLY...SEVERAL RA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG SFC WIND SHIFT/BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.  THE CONVECTION LINES UP WELL
WITH THE MID-LEVEL DRYING OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...ENDING DURING THE EVENING.  DRYING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
LAGGING IN FAR NORTHERN MS.  WILL SEE SFC DEWPOINTS DROP A LITTLE
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY.

SATURDAY...A CALM START TO THE DAY AS PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.  RIDGE WEST TROUGH EAST UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PLACES THE
REGION IN NW FLOW.  BY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90-95 RANGE
CWA WIDE...TEMPS HIGHEST IN THE WEST...WITH SCT RA/TSRA EXPECTED TO
FIRE IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. TO THE
NORTH...A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT AND INCREASE RA/TSRA CHANCES BY THE EVENING.  ANTICIPATE AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF RA/TSRA TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH AND MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO OUR NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES. WITH LAPSE RATES
NEAR 6.5 C/KM...SBCAPE GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG AND LIS IN THE -4 TO
-7 RANGE...COULD SEE EMBEDDED SEVERE STORMS.  HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS.  HWO HANDLES THIS WELL.

SUNDAY...SFC BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
LINGER OVER THE CWFA ON SUNDAY.  ANTICIPATE RA/TSRA TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON AND RAISED POPS IN THIS
PERIOD A BIT.  EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO MOVE OUT THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.

TEMP WISE IN THE SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED MAV CLOSELY.

MONDAY AND THE EXTENDED...NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING
FORECAST.  AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...THE FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
CLAUDETTE WILL BEHAVE AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.  MED RANGE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINTAINING AN
UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.  KEPT AFTERNOON
AND EVENING RA/TSRA WORDING AS AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO PROMOTE DIURNAL CONVECTION... ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ZONES.  LIKE YESTERDAY...THE MODELS TRY TO NUDGE THE
RIDGE FURTHER EAST INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.  THIS WOULD IMPLY
THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 90S NEARLY AREA WIDE...
ESPECIALLY WESTERN ZONES.

TEMP WISE...KEPT HIGHS BETWEEN THE 90-94 RANGE AND LOWS IN THE 70-75
RANGE...NOT TOO FAR FROM CLIMO/MEXMOS.  WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
70-75 RANGE ON A REGULAR BASIS THIS WEEK...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
HEAT INDICES AS THEY COULD EXCEED 105 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN  70/92/71/90/71 12342
MEI  70/92/70/90/71 12342

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

GAGAN

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
122050-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTERACT WITH A STALLED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE HIGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND REACH SEVERE
LIMITS...MAINLY NORTH OF A GREENVILLE TO EUPORA LINE...LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND
NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST
DEVELOPING OR ONGOING BY 6 PM SATURDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF A LAKE
VILLAGE ARKANSAS TO KOSCIUSKO TO DEKALB MISSISSIPPI LINE...AND
LAST LATE INTO THE EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND PENNY
SIZED HAIL.

THE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DIFFUSE COOL FRONT WILL HELP
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20...WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
443 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0300 PM    LAUREL                    MS   WIND DAMAGE
07/11/03   JONES                          SEVERAL TREES AND
                                          POWERLINES DOWN. REPORTED
                                          BY ELECTRIC POWER
                                          ASSOCIATION.

0305 PM    4 E MOSS                  MS   WIND DAMAGE
07/11/03   JASPER                         A TREE AND A POWERLINE
                                          DOWN ACROSS A ROAD.
                                          REPORTED BY JASPER COUNTY
                                          SHERIFFS OFFICE.