Severe Thunderstorm Warning 508, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2003

MAIN CHALLENGES REMAIN THE TEMPS AND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR HAS SETTLED OVER
THE CWFA. THE SURFACE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.
FIRST PERIOD POPS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

MODELS ARE QUITE SIMILAR IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE SLOWLY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LOW
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND SHEAR OUT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WEAK
TROUGH SLIDES TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AND A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS SETS UP ALONG THE COAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. LEAVING A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE CWFA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR 9O IN MOST PLACES AND POPS SHOULD
BE MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL (30%).  THE SURFACE BOUNDARY (COMBINED WITH
THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS) WILL LINGER AROUND THE SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND AIDED
BY THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...WILL TEND TO FOCUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BY MONDAY THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE OFF TO THE
EAST...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AGAIN SET UP OVER THE CWFA BRINGING
MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CURRENT POP GUIDANCE LOOKS DECENT AND WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR HOWEVER
A MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE TREND IS EXPECTED. FOR HOWEVER...WILL KEEP
THE POPS ABOVE GUIDANCE INTO THE EXTENDED. NOT QUITE CONFIDENT THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. TEMP
GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AND WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE.

ONE POINT ABOUT THE MODELS...CURRENT UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WAS NOT WELL INITIALIZED THIS RUN. THIS FEATURE
WAS DEPICTED THE BEST BY THE AVN MODEL...HOWEVER IT SHEARED THE
SYSTEM OUT AS IT MOVED NORTHEAST...AND THE AVN INITIALIZED THE SYSTEM
TOO WEAK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN TB 069/088 068/088 067 32553
    BBBBB 090/068 091/071 091/072 090/072 090 32223232323
MEI TB 069/088 068/088 066 32553
    BBBBB 090/067 091/070 091/071 090/071 090 32223232323

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

32/LISTEMAA

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
191906-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
206 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FOR ANOTHER DAY...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WITH A
MOIST...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.  A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

...FLOODING...
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS KEPT SOILS AROUND THE REGION SATURATED AND
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION. BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS
MAY LEAD TO FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH
AS ROADWAYS...SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL RIVERS REMAIN
NEAR BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING
ALONG AND NEAR RIVERS.

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE...AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ARE MORE
LIKELY TO SEE FLOODING TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.