Severe Thunderstorm Warning 502, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

ANOTHER BUSY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COPIOUS
RAINFALL RATES MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THE GROUNDS
ARE FAIRLY SATURATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH FFG VALUES BELOW AN
INCH PER HOUR. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINSH BY MIDNIGHT BUT
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING TO THE SW FROM NE ARKANSAS TO NE TEXAS
WL DRIFT A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE DELTA REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER REMAINS OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. WL GO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE AFTN AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE DAYTIME HEATING.

EXTENDED: THURSDAY A WEAK SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW WILL DRAW IN DRIER AIR OVER OUR REGION
MOVING THE REMNANTS OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CWA. WL
TREND DRIER BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL TEXAS EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. SATURDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY BE ENHANCED DUE TO
THE EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. DEEPER MOISTURE AND A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY
WILL WARRANT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
JAN TT 070/086 069/087 069 22775
    BBBBB 089/068 090/070 091/070 092/070 090 53332121223
MEI TT 069/087 068/087 069 22765
    BBBBB 089/069 090/070 091/070 092/070 090 53332121223

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

22

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
162040-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
340 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE COMBINING WITH NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS...TO ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST...GENERALLY EAST OF I-55...AND RESULT IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...NEW DATA MONDAY MORNING
WILL GIVE BETTER CLUES ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. STAY INFORMED TO UPDATED FORECASTS.

...FLOODING...
BECAUSE OF THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING RAINS WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BASTROP LOUISIANA
TO CANTON TO DEKALB MISSISSIPPI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
233 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0225 PM    4 S PORT GIBSON           MS   WIND DAMAGE
06/15/03   CLAIBORNE                      LARGE LIMBS DOWN. PUBLIC
                                          REPORT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
242 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0210 PM    BROOKHAVEN                MS   FLOODING
06/15/03   LINCOLN                        HOMES/BUSINESSES FLOODED.
                                          STREET FLOODING.
                                          REPORTED
                                          BY LINCOLN COUNTY EMA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
322 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0315 PM    BROOKHAVEN                MS   FLOODING
06/15/03   LINCOLN                        10 HOMES FLOODED.
                                          REPORTED BY LINCOLN
                                          COUNTY EMA.