Severe Thunderstorm Warning 496, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED JUST UPSTREAM TODAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON
EXACT PLACEMENT OF SURFACE BOUNDARY BUT GENERALLY MAINTAIN BOUNDARY
JUST ALONG N/NW EDGED OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER DIVERGENCE LOOKS
WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON BUT SWATH OF 1.5-2 INCH PWS CONTINUES. AGREE
WITH MOS FOR TODAY AND WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS. HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH INCHES SLIGHTLY EWD AND THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THIS WAY. WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE PONDING WATER BUT
EXPECT PROBLEMS TO BE LOCAL. WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR TODAY MOST AREAS.

DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PERSISTS JUST W OF THE MS RIVER. GFS MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN
THE MOST UNSTABLE...SHOWS AIR MASS NRN AREAS STABILIZING WITH TIME
AS SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SWD INTO CENTRAL SECTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ETA SLOWER WITH SRN PROGRESS OF BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY BE MORE
ACCURATE IN GENERALLY SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. K INDICES REMAIN IN LOW
TO MID 30S INTO NEXT WEEK SO ANY AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SHORTWAVE TRACK WILL PERSIST AND CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION OVER FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.

NO BIG CHANGES TO TEMPS THIS PACKAGE AS LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW REMAINS
DOMINANT MOST OF PERIOD. MAY SEE AFTERNOON TEMPS ONE OR TWO DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER TROUGH BUT HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MID 80S RANGE. AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY
DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF TROUGH.

LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE TROUGH ALSO FORECAST TO LINGER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH EXACT POSITION IS ANYONES GUESS.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
JAN 85/70/86/70 6554
MEI 85/70/86/69 6554

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
161052-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
552 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...EAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE...WILL CONTINUE COMBINING WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...AND A MOIST AIRMASS...TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OUR AIRMASS
IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS PREVIOUS DAYS...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

...FLOODING...
BECAUSE OF THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.