Severe Thunderstorm Warning 485, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
145 CDT THU JUN 12 2003

DO NOT EXPECT TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. NOT SURE WHAT TO
DO ABOUT POPS TONIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE SEEMS TO BE MOVING INTO WEST
MISSISSIPPI...HELPING TO PUSH THINGS EAST. EXPECT TO GET A SHORT
BREAK...WITH CLOUDS THINNING AND RAIN TAPERING AS THE SHORTWAVE
SWINGS BY. NOT REALLY SURE WHAT TO DO ABOUT POPS FOR TONIGHT. BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD ADD TO INSTABILITY...WITH COMPLEX MOVING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 20 TO GET ANOTHER
ROUND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ANOTHER SYSTEM
TRAILING CLOSELY BEHIND...MAY GO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL TONIGHT AND DROP
TO CHANCE OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT WILL GO DOWN TO THE WIRE. AVN SHOWS A
BOUNDARY FORMING NORTH SATURDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN ALONG
AND NORTH. THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH MORE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS AND MOVING EAST. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH HIGHER CHANCES SUNDAY. LOW DEVELOPS LATE
SATURDAY AND REACHES THE RIVER THE SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE UPPER
LOW SETTLING EAST...EXPECT MANY SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH EMBEDDED
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY LOOK GOOD WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA AND SEVERAL LOWS MOVING OUT OF
TEXAS. THE GFS KEEPS RAIN IN THROUGH TUESDAY...MAY GO LIKELY THEN
ALSO. OTHERWISE WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.

WILL WAIT AND SEE WHAT TO DO ABOUT FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALSO. WITH
STUFF DEVELOPING GENERAL SOUTH RIGHT NOW...MAY TO ADJUST TO INCLUDE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH A BLEND FOR TEMPS AND WINDS. MOST SEEM TO BE IN
AGREEMENT. WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
MAY GO A LITTLE COOLER THAN MEX.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
JAN TB 073/086 072/087 071 53333
    ETTEE 088/071 086/073 089/071 088/071 089 5466654434
MEI TB 072/087 071/086 070 55333
    ETTEE 087/071 085/072 086/071 088/070 088 3366654434=

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
131424-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
924 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE COMBINATION OF
THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL EXIST SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. DUE TO THE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-20. THE MAIN CONCERN FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

...FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND A LARGE PORTION OF
MISSISSIPPI TODAY.

AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE
REGION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE NEAR 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITHIN A
SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME...WITH STORM TOTALS RANGING BETWEEN 2 AND 4
INCHES.

AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI HAVE ALREADY SEEN UP TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...WITH AREAS ALONG I-20
GETTING AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN POSTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...EAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.  AS UPPER ATMOSPHERIC
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TRAVERSING THE REGION...THESE FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS TO RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE MOST LIKELY TIME TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE  OVER
THE ARKLATEX REGION SUNDAY.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...AND PROVIDE A STEADY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1026 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0840 AM    LARTO                     LA   WIND DAMAGE
06/12/03   CATAHOULA                      A FEW TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY CATAHOULA
                                          PARISH SHERIFFS OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1128 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0930 AM    SIBLEY                    MS   WIND DAMAGE
06/12/03   ADAMS                          SEVERAL TREES AND
                                          POWERLINES DOWN. REPORTED
                                          BY ELECTRIC POWER
                                          ASSOCIATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1139 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0910 AM    DEER PARK                 LA   WIND DAMAGE
06/12/03   CONCORDIA                      A FEW TREES AND
                                          POWERLINES DOWN. REPORTED
                                          BY ELECTRIC POWER
                                          ASSOCIATION.

MSZ054>066-072>074-121845-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
124 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526 HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 526.

IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SMITH...CLARKE...JASPER...SIMPSON AND COPIAH.

IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...
COVINGTON...JONES...JEFFERSON...FORREST...LAMAR...MARION...
FRANKLIN...LINCOLN...ADAMS...LAWRENCE AND JEFFERSON DAVIS.

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WATCH HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
158 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1150 PM    1 S RALEIGH               MS   60 MPH WIND GUST
06/12/03   SMITH                          PUBLIC REPORT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TIME OF REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
158 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1150 AM    1 S RALEIGH               MS   60 MPH WIND GUST
06/12/03   SMITH                          PUBLIC REPORT.