Severe Thunderstorm Warning 293, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2003

MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE CURRENT CONVECTION
AND ITS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

18Z AREA SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY UNSTABLE AND SHEARED
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20 ARE SUBSTANTIALLY CAPPED. ONLY FEATURE TO RELEASE THIS
CAP WILL BE THE S/W AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX COMING OUT OF NE TX.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ONLY EFFECT THE N PORTIONS OF THE FA.
WITH SUCH FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MOREHOUSE PARISH TO GREENVILLE AND ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.

CONCERNING THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS
FOR TONIGHT...AS HEAVY RAINS FROM MORNING STORMS HAVE LAID THE
FOUNDATION FOR FLASH FLOODING WHEN MORE STORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW SUPPORTS TRAINING OF STORMS AND I AM
EXPECTING AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOR TUE...ANOTHER S/W WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SW FLOW AND EFFECT AREAS
TO MY NORTH. WITH THE PRESENCE OF SFC BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS
EVENINGS CONVECTION AND THE APPROACH OF THE S/W WILL CONTINUE SCT
POPS ALONG THE N ZONES...ISOLATED CENTRAL. WILL KEEP THIS RAIN
CHANCE ORIENTATION THROUGH WED AS LINGERING BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST
OVER THE NORTHERN FA.

WILL MENTION DRY CONDITIONS...AREA WIDE...FOR THU AS FOCUSING
FEATURES LIFT NORTH. FOR FRI...GFS INDICATES A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...WILL MENTION SCT
POPS.

FOR SAT-MON...UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST FOR THOSE PERIODS. WITH

WITH SUCH A WARM AIRMASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION...AND
NOTHING TO PUSH IT OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE 7 DAY
FORECAST...EXPECT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FA. BY
THE WEEKEND...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW 90S.

JAN 74/88/73/89/73 32220
MEI 73/88/72/89/72 22220

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TONIGHT...MSZ025>033-036>039.

36

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1213 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF AN INTERSTATE 20 LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH
OF THAT LINE. THE AREA MOST IMPACTED SHOULD BE ALONG THE HIGHWAY
82 CORRIDOR WHERE THE FIRST ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PASSED
THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND A
FEW TORNADOES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS INDICATING A HIGH
RISK CATEGORY FOR A FEW DAMAGING TORNADOES AS WELL.

AN EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS FEEDING MORE GULF AIR INTO
THE REGION. A STRONG JET STREAM WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
REGION...AND AS THIS JET STREAM INTERACTS WITH THE
MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND DAYTIME HEATING..THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP. STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL YIELD FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THIS AREA. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS
MORNING SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
ON TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXPECTED ALL WEEK
LONG.

RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS...WATCHES...WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS SITUATION.

...FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. AS A FRONT BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THIS COULD
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS...CREEKS...AND POOR DRAINING
AREAS.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. AT THIS
TIME...THE LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE ISOLATED...AND SHOULD PRODUCE ONLY BRIEF FLOOD PROBLEMS.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL HELP CREATE BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON...AND BOATERS ON OPEN WATER ARE
URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...
THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF WEST OF A
BROOKHAVEN...TO JACKSON...TO MERIDIAN LINE. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AND COMBINE WITH AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT LYING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...
THE THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 82 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IN UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BUILD INTO
THE AREA...REDUCING THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1153 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1126 AM    5 NW ARTESIA              MS   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   LOWNDES                        NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
                                          HIGHWAY 82 AND ALTERNATE
                                          HIGHWAY 45. REPORTED BY
                                          MSU STORM CHASERS.

1140 AM    COLUMBUS                  MS   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   LOWNDES                        REPORTED BY LOWNDES
                                          COUNTY EMA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0230 PM    1 E CLEVELAND             MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   BOLIVAR                        REPORTED BY BOLIVAR
                                          COUNTY EMA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
302 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0240 PM    RULEVILLE                 MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   SUNFLOWER                      REPORTED BY SUNFLOWER
                                          COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
307 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0245 PM    2 N CLEVELAND             MS   WIND DAMAGE
05/05/03   BOLIVAR                        A FEW TREES DOWN AND A
                                          COUPLE OF STORAGE
                                          BUILDINGS DESTROYED.
                                          REPORTED BY BOLIVAR
                                          COUNTY EMA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
338 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0330 PM    BENOIT                    MS   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   BOLIVAR                        REPORTED BY BOLIVAR
                                          COUNTY EMA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0350 PM    3 W GRENADA               MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   GRENADA                        MILE 200 ON I-55.
                                          REPORTED BY GRENADA
                                          COUNTY EMA.