Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
240 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2003

LAPS CAPE VALUES WERE NEAR 2000 TO 3000 OVER SOUTHEAST AREAS...RUC
WINDS SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WINDS AT 500/850 WEST.
CLOUDS SHOW THE BOUNDARY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE ALREADY SEEN ROTATING STORMS AND ACTIVITY WAS
STARTING TO BACK BUILD NEAR CWA...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS AND
MENTION SEVERE EAST AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE TAIL END OF THE COLD
FRONT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY AS IT MOVED ACROSS TX/OK...WILL LEAVE
THE REST OF THE AREA DRY. EXPECT THE LOW OVER MO TO CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WITH MORE DRY STABLE AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
WEEKEND STILL LOOKS OK...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT
FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE AVN HAS A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS. WITH
LIGHT QPF WILL HOLD OFF ON RAIN AND CONTINUE MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SEEM TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND MID WEEK. FRIDAY
MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR RAIN. GFS DROPS A CLOSED LOW INTO SOUTHERN
CA FRIDAY...WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASE...WHILE A 500MB
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE AREA. AGAIN WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING AND HOLD OFF ON RAIN.

WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS...CURRENT FORECAST STILL
OK.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
JAN   53  77  53 81 55  80 1000
MEI   55  77  52 81 55  80 3000

.JAN...
AR...NONE
LA...NONE
MS...NONE

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
406 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY ANY SEVERE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH THE
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM QUITMAN TO RALEIGH TO BROOKHAVEN TO BUDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.