Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 PM CST WED FEB 26 2003

CORRECTED TO DISCUSS OVERNIGHT LOWS

FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PACKAGE...
TIMING END OF PRECIP AND TEMPS

CURRENTLY...88D MOSAIC IMAGERY INDICATES A SW TO NE AXIS OF RAINFALL
OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. ONE ORGANIZED...ALTHOUGH
BROKEN...BAND OF RAIN THERE ARE BREAKS IN RAIN COVERAGE AND BY FAR
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. MUCH OF THE
ORGANIZED RAINFALL WITHIN THE CWA HAS BEEN GENERALLY EAST OF I55 AND
NORTH OF I20.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AND SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS SFC LOW
WILL CUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS TONIGHT AND THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER A SECOND
SHEARED VORT MAX IS MOVING OUT OF N TX. SCATTERED AREAS OF
RAIN...AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z/26 ETA INDICATES THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH TONIGHT...WITH A
FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH...EMPHASIS ON ISOLATED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
ZONES. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENVILLE IN CASE THEY APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK.  MOS AND MODEL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE TEMPS IN THIS REGION SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...HOWEVER WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG ON. ANOTHER COOL DAY THURSDAY AS HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING
FOR FRIDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS.

IN THE EXTENDED...STRONG POLAR JET WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
POLAR VORTEX OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO SO FAR AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
CONCERNED. BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND EXPECT SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO REMAIN IN TACT.
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR UNTIL MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. GFS ATTEMPTS TO MERGE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY AND DEVELOPS A POTENT...FAST MOVING SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE EUROPEAN MODELS MAINTAIN THE PERSISTENT SPLIT FLOW
REGIME...AND THUS THEY ARE A LITTLE SLOWER IN PROGRESSING THIS WAVE
EASTWARD...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION.

AS FAR AS THE PARTICULARS ARE CONCERNED...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE
FOR THIS PACKAGE. CONFIDENCE IS STILL ON THE LOW SIDE IN SO MUCH AS
TRUSTING THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH DISTURBANCES PASSAGE. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES
JUST TO NORTH OF THE REGION AND A DEVELOPING SFC LOW PASSES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE GULF. AS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL
KEEP TEMPS WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF NORMAL.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN 40/52/34/59 820
MEI 42/53/34/59 820

.JAN...NONE

GAGAN

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
271200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
251 PM CST WED FEB 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THE SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY.

...FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO HALF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH IN ISOLATED
SPOTS.	PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ARE
LIKELY. THE RAINS MAY PROLONG ANY PRIOR FLOODING BUT SHOULD NOT
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.