Flash Flood Warning 104, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 062005
FFSJAN
MSC035-062100-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
301 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT FOR...

FORREST COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI

AS OF 3 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF 
RAIN HAD FALLEN IN THE LAST HOUR ACROSS FORREST COUNTY BETWEEN CAMP 
SHELBY AND BROOKLYN. THIS HAS LIKELY PRODUCED FLOODING OF SOME ROADS
AND STREAMS IN THIS AREA. 

WHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PRODUCED THIS TORRENTIAL RAIN HAVE 
WEAKENED SOMEWHAT...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING JUST 
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA. THESE STORMS COULD DRIFT OVER THE
AREA BETWEEN BROOKLYN AND CAMP SHELBY...POTENTIALLY AGGRAVATING
THE FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN FORREST 
COUNTY COULD MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR THE NEXT 
HOUR. THIS COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE 
AREA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF BROOKLYN.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY  MOST
FLASH FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM INVOLVES ISSUANCE OF FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY AND SERIOUS DEBATE ON
FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE. PERSISTENT SHOWERS FROM NE LA INTO NW MS
SHOULD HAMPER EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY. WATER VAPOR PIX ALSO
SHOW TONGUE OF DRIER AIR AHEAD OF APPROACHING TUTT LOW. BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY CONVECTION WILL BE NE TO SW SWATH OF FORECAST AREA SO WILL
GO WITH FLOOD WATCH THESE AREAS. CONFIDENCE LOW.

WATER VAPOR PIX SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE NUMBERS AN INCH OR LESS AN HOUR MOST CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE JUST WEST OF FORECAST AREA AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN PLACE. MODEL PRECIP MAX OCCURS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 TODAY...APPARENTLY DUE TO REGION OF DRIER AIR ON WEST
SIDE OF APPROACHING TUTT LOW. WILL MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES
ALL ZONES BUT BEST BET FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
NRN AND WRN ZONES.

GULF LOW SHIFTS INTO SW MS/SW LA MONDAY. MODELS SHOW INCREASE IN
DEEPER MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF GULF LOW MONDAY BUT TEMPERED BY MID
LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHIFTS THIS WAY FROM THE E. WILL KEEP AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCES SRN ZONES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOW.

MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY TUE. GFS MAINTAINS THE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE ETA AMPLIFIES THE WESTERLYS AND
DRAGS AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME BUT MAY SEE WIDER COVERAGE IF TROUGH
DEEPENS.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WED AS THE
MODELS COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT AND THE UPPER RIDGE IS SHUNTED SWD
BY AMPLIFYING WESTERLIES. POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN IN NWLY FLOW
ALOFT THU BUT MOST ENERGY REMAINS N OF THE FORECAST AREA. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS INTO NRN AR THU EVENING BUT DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES SWD FRI. UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER REGION FRIDAY AND
PERSISTS FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR NOW.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
JAN 85/71/89/72 6252
MEI 86/71/88/71 6252

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...FFA ZONES 026>033-036>039-042>063

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
071841-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
141 PM CDT SUN JUL 06 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
 MONDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN VERY
MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  FREQUENT LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS OF RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
RISKS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

...FLOODING...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI WHERE GROUND CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS ARE NEARLY
SATURATED.

THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS EXTREMELY
MOIST...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH MONDAY. ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP IN THIS MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF RAIN. WINDS ALOFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE WEAK...WHICH MEANS THAT THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OVER A SMALL AREA. WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...THESE ISOLATED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
WHERE GROUND CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY SATURATED IN MANY AREAS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 7 PM.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE NEEDED AT THAT TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.