Flash Flood Warning 102, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 052224
FFSJAN
MSC053-125-052320-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
519 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2003

FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...

HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SHARKEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

AT 520 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED          
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY BETWEEN ANGUILLA...LOUISE AND 
MIDNIGHT...ALL MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR ARE STILL 
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...AS 3 TO 4 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN 
SINCE 430 PM.

MOST DEATHS IN FLASH FLOODING OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.

$$

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 052321
FFSJAN
MSC053-125-062350-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
620 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2003

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI 
AND SHARKEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE.

AT 620 PM...RADAR INDICATED THAT THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS MOVED OUT OF 
THE AREA.  

RADAR ESTIMATES THAT BETWEEN THREE AND SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN HAVE 
FALLEN SINCE 4 PM ACROSS NORTHEAST SHARKEY COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST 
HUMPHREYS COUNTY.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
200 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2003

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW WIDESPREAD...DEEP AND VERY
MOIST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. MORNING BALLOON
SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER TWO INCHES IN MANY
LOCATIONS...SUGGESTING THAT MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
LITTLE PROBLEM PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. FURTHERMORE...THE
MOISTURE DEPTH ON THE SOUNDINGS EXTENDS UP TO ABOUT 450 MB AND THE
WIND FLOW AT ALL LEVELS IS VERY WEAK. AT THE SURFACE...SOILS REMAIN
NEARLY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH 800 PM.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY LATE
THIS EVENING AS MOST OF THE DAILY HEATING IS LOST.  LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS WILL FORM ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AS MOISTURE FROM THE DAY/S
RAINS IS LIFTED ABOVE THE SURFACE. ON SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
VERY MOIST...WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION.
EXPECT...A REPEAT OF TODAY/S WEATHER. AS WAS THE CASE TODAY...WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO A SLOW
SOUTHWESTERLY STORM MOTION...AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. AS A RESULT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUNDAY WILL BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. ON SUNDAY EVENING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN DIMINISH.

ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST AND THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH TO THE WEST BEGIN
TO INTENSIFY. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TWO HIGH PRESSURE AREAS OVER
THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR THE MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE...TO BE MORE OF THE SCATTERED VARIETY.
DUE TO UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR ON THESE DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF
THE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING TYPE THAN THE SEVERE TYPE. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NORMAL LEVELS AS SUBSIDENCE ADDS TO THE
DAILY HEATING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE TREND TOWARDS DRIER AND HOTTER WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE AREA MIGRATES EASTWARD
AND AS THE ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROUGH TO THE WEST BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW...AND BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON LOUISIANA. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
AND FOR THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH FURTHER IN
AREAL COVERAGE.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
JAN TB 072/085 072/091 072 18663
MEI TB 072/083 072/091 071 18663

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH MSZ043>045-048>066-072>074.

18/HENRY

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
061949-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
249 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. MORE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS AND A DISTURBANCE IN UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE VERY MOIST...THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS OF RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

...FLOODING...
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A RISK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A PORT
GIBSON..TO CANTON...TO CARTHAGE LINE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT.

WITH AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF RAIN. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING...FURTHER INCREASING THE
RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES
IN LESS THAN AN HOUR COULD OCCUR. THESE TYPES OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS AND ROADS...PARTICULARLY
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THAT HAVE SEEN
SIGNIFICANT RAIN RECENTLY...AND HAVE SATURATED GROUND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.