Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
230 PM EST WED MAY 7 2003

ACTIVE PATTERN WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS REGION
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. TIMING/STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THESE WAVES WILL HAVE
LARGE IMPACTS ON FORECAST THROUGH WEEKEND. FOR TONIGHT...INITIAL
AREA OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS SRN ILLINOIS.
NOT CONFIDENT THIS AREA WILL MAKE IT INTO CWFA THIS EVENING AS IT
OUT RUNS WARM FRONT AND INSTABILITY AND NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS
FARTHER WEST. WILL HAVE A CHANCE THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
STORMS. THE NEW CONVECTION FARTHER WEST IS EXPECTED TO RIDE THE WARM
FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
GOOD OMEGA PROGGED BY MODELS BEWEEN 06Z AND 15Z WITH INCREASING MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY. BEING NORTH OF FRONT...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
WOULD BE GREATEST THREAT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS BUT
SOME CONCERN HOW FAR EAST THIS WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT. SHOULD LINGER
IN THE EAST DURING THE MORNING.

NO GOOD TRIGGER FOR FRI AFTERNOON BUT INSTABILITY INCREASES...
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST. IF CONVECTION CAN BE TRIGGERED...SEVERE WILL
BE A GOOD BET...WITH WIND AND HAIL THE THREATS. MODELS INDICATING
ANOTHER MCS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT WITH ANOTHER S/W.
CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO. SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT
AGAIN UNSTABLE IN WARM SECTOR AND AHEAD OF APCHG COLD FRONT. HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. COLDER AND DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN ON
SUNDAY. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INDICATED BY MODELS SO KEPT A
CHANCE OF SHRA SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON CLOUD COVER.
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MCS AND DEBRIS CLOUDS EACH DAY...TEMPS COULD BE
TEMPERED A BIT. WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
COULD EASILY BE INTO THE 80S. FOR NOW...WL CONFINE 80S TO SOUTHERN
HALF OF CWA AND UPPER 70S NORTH AND EAST.

ON MONDAY A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE AWAY FROM
OUR CWA AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THEN ON THURSDAY A LOW WILL BE OVER TEXAS WITH A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF, MRF, AND
GEM BASICALLY AGREE WITH EACH OTHER ON THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF MOVES THE LOW AWAY FROM MICHIGAN SLOWER DURING THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK THAN THE OTHERS DO AND THE GFS HAS OUR CWA WET FOR
THURSDAY AS IT BRINGS UP A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH INDIANA. SO
FOR THIS TIME FRAME, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD STILL BE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THAT LOW BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY AND THEN DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. MRF MOS HAS BEEN TRENDING COOLER WITH
TEMPS AND SURROUNDING OFFICES COOLED THEIR TEMPS...SO I EDITED SOME
OF THE MAX/MIN TEMPS TO REFLECT A COOLER WEEK AND TO AGREE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

.IWX...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.

LASHLEY/LOTHAMER

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-080930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
435 AM EST WED MAY 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA TODAY. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 THROUGH MID MORNING. NONE OF THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. AS THE LOW APPROACHES LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF US 6 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A WARM FRONT WILL WORK NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS
FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE
THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES, OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IWX

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
0517 PM EST WED MAY 07 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0516 PM    3 E BUCHANAN              MI   WIND DAMAGE
05/07/03   BERRIEN                        REPORTS OF TREE DOWN

WAMSLEY