Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
222 PM EST THU MAY 1 2003

CDFNT MOVG SLOWLY EAST ACRS SWRN MI NC INDIANA THIS AFTN. TSTMS
DVLPG ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH ABOUT 60MILES EAST OF FRONT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTN/EVE WITH LOW WBZ, BUT
INSTABILITY LOOKS LACKING ATTM AS DWPTS HAVE FALLEN TO U50S AND LAPS
CAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG.  S/WV OVR NRN HI PLAINS WL MOVE
EAST TO MS VLY OVRNGT HELPING TO PUSH CDFNT TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA
OVNGT. SHWRS/TSTMS SHD BE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING ALONG/AHD OF
FRONT...LINGERING INTO EARLY MORNING OVR SERN PORTION OF CWA. SOME
OVERRUNNING XPCD TO CONT BEHIND SLOW MOVG FRONT. WL MENTION SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS OVR NWRN PORTION OF CWA THIS EVE. CONSIDERABLE LOW LVL
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER CWA FRI WITH COOL NE FLOW. LEANED
TOWARD COOLEST OF THE MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS. CONT WITH CHC OF SHOWERS
AS UPR TROF MOVG THRU THE AREA WL PROVIDE SOME UVM. DRIER AIR XPCD
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NGT AS SFC HI SETTLES INTO
UPR GRTLKS. THIS SHD RESULT IN DECRSG CLOUDINESS ACRS THE NORTH, BUT
LOW CLOUDS XPCD TO LINGER MOST OR ALL NGT IN THE SOUTH. FAIR WX XPCD
SAT-SAT NGT AS RIDGE MOVG ACRS THE GRTLKS PROVIDES DRY ELY FLOW. ETA
BRINGING IN SOME PRECIP LATE SUN AS A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES
INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. AVN SLOWER TO MOVE THIS PRECIP EAST AND WILL
HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING TO FCST ATTM WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO EFP...MAINLY TO COORDINATE WITH
SURROUNDING GRIDS.

.IWX...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.

JT/SE

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-021000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
508 AM EST THU MAY 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MARCHES ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS THROUGHOUT NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LOGANSPORT TO ALBION TO ADRIAN...AND THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
HARTFORD CITY TO OTTAWA.

LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS A
SECONDARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES, OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IWX

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