Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
326 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND WILL BE MOVING FURTHER EASTWARD ON THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW
TONIGHT WILL BE TIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE SUSTAINED WINDS TONIGHT TO BE
STRONG (INTO THE 30 MPH RANGE) AND FOR GUSTS TO GET INTO THE 40S.
THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATER TOMORROW AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE. THEREFORE WENT
WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S FOR TONIGHT WHICH WILL SET UP THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA FOR SNOW. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN SECTION. DELTA TS
WILL ALSO BE AROUND 20 FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HUMIDITY TIME
HEIGHTS ALSO SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  BML
&&

.LONG TERM...

LES SHOULD QUICKLY END THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS RAPIDLY DRYING
OUT AFTER 00Z FRI AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WILL EXTEND
CHANCE OF SHSN INTO THE EVENING FOR LAKE EFFECT COUNTIES THEN DRY
FCST ENTIRE CWA REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
SEND DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECT TEMPS TO
DROP DOWN INTO L20S AND WILL GO AOB MAV NUMBERS. SFC RIDGE THEN
SETTLES IN OVER TN VALLEY FRI AND BRING FAIR BUT COOL WX TO THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI
NITE WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA AND THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN
AGAIN SAT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC HIGH
MEANWHILE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SE US AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK CLOSE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY. NEXT SYSTEM THEN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MON
AND TUE BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN. SFC AND UPPER LOW END UP
OVER EASTERN CANADA BY WED LEAVING OUR AREA IN NW FLOW BEHIND
SYSTEM. THIS COULD PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR LES BUT WILL LEAVE FCST DRY
FOR TIME BEING.  JAL
&&

.AVIATION...

IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS STILL GOING ON AT SBN AND FWA. THE FOG HELD ON
FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING BUT HAS FINALLY MOVED ON. LOW CEILINGS WILL
HANG AROUND SBN FOR A BIT...BUT THEN THERE IS A SMALL DRY SLOT TO
THE WEST WITH NO CEILING. THIS WILL FIRST ROTATE IN SBN FOR A BIT
AND THEN FWA BEFORE MORE LOW LEVEL WRAP AROUND CLOUDS MOVE IN. LEFT
THE TAFS BKN AS THIS DRY SLOT WILL NOT LAST LONG IF IT DOESNT GET
CLOSED UP BEFORE GETTING TO EITHER AIRPORT. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AT FWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOTHING HAS DEVELOPED AS
OF YET. THINGS WILL BECOME WINDY AT BOTH SBN AND FWA TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW MOVES THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT INTO THE AREA. GUSTS COULD GET UP TO 40MPH.     BML
&&

.IWX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES INZ003>009...INZ012>018...
INZ020...INZ022>027...INZ032>034.

MI...WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES OHZ001>002...OHZ004>005...
OHZ015>016...OHZ024>025.
&&

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-131000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
455 AM EST WED NOV 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED ALL OF
NORTHWEST OHIO AND PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN IN A MODERATE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THIS MODERATE RISK...AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM DOWAGIAC MICHIGAN...TO SOUTH BEND AND LOGANSPORT INDIANA.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WITH VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP...THEY WILL
LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT
DUE TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL HAZARDS INCLUDE DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT. SOME SMALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER BANDS
OVER EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES, OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IWX