Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
205 PM EST WED JUL 9 2003

UPPR LVL FLOW XPCTD TO BECOME MORE NWLY WITH TIME AS A SERIES OF
SHORT WV TROFS DIG ACRS THE GRTLKS. FCST FOCUS CENTERS ON FLOOD
THREAT AND POPS IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF PDS.

IN THE NR TERM...TSTM COMPLEX CURRENTLY HEADING INTO THE NWRN
COUNITES MOVG ALONG FRONTAL SYS DRAPED OVR THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE...WHILE ADDITIONAL TSTM ACTVTY DVLPG OVR THE S ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW FM LAST NIGHT/S MCS. COMPLEX SHOULD CONT MOVG ESEWD THRU THE
REST OF AFT. WS696 IN EFFECT THRU 22Z.

HARD TO PIN ANYTHING DOWN IN THE MODELS REGARDING ORGANIZED PCPN
TONIGHT...BUT AXIS OF LO LVL JET NOSES INTO THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE TONIGHT...SO ADDITIONAL COMPLEXES MAY FORM OR MOV INTO THE
STATE LTR TONIGHT...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF DVLPMNT ALONG ANY
COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WL GO WITH LIKLEY POPS OVR THE NRN
ZONES CLOSEST TO LO LVL JET AND SCT ELSEWHERE. WL CONT FLOOD WATCH
AS IS DUE TO XPCTD TSTM ACTVTY COMBINED WITH VERY LO FFG VALUES IN
THE NORTH.

IN THE LTR PDS...INCOMING CDFNT XPCTD TO PASS THRU THE AREA ON
THURS. MODELS SUGGEST BEST INSTABILITY TO BE SE OF AREA...PROBABLY
DUE TO OUTFLOWS FM TONIGHT/S ACTVTY. CONVERGENCE ALONG FNT PRETTY
WK. DUE TO ABV FACTORS...WL ONLY GO WITH CHC POPS ON THURS...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SE. WL KEEP A LINGERING POP OVR THE SE ZONES
THURS EVEN JUST IN CASE FNT IS SLOWER. IMPRVG CONDS BY FRI WITH HI
PRES BLDG IN...PUSHING FNT FARTHER AWAY.

MOS GUIDANCE NOT AVAILABLE TODAY...BUT BASED ON LO LVL THICKNESSES
AND UPSTREAM TEMPS...WILL GO WITH LOWS AROUND 70 TONIGHT...LO-MID
80S ON THURS...AROUND 60 THURS NIGHT...AND AROUND 80 ON FRI.

.IND...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR ZONES INZ021...INZ028>031...
INZ035>049...INZ051>057.

JAS

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-101100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
600 AM EST WED JUL 9 2003

...FLOOD WATCH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
SPOTTERS ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO REPORT FLOODING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL...

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IND (ALL LOWER CASE)