Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
205 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

NUMEROUS FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...STEMMING AROUND SVR
WEATHER THREATS AND HEAVY PCPN POSSIBILITIES. LOOKS LIKE ONE ROUND
LATER TONIGHT THAT MAY BE MORE OF A HEAVY RAINER...WITH A MUCH MORE
SERIOUS LOOKING SEVERE SITUATION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

LATEST SFC CHART SHOWING THE WARM FRONT HAS NOW PROGRESSED NWRD TO
AROUND CHI...EXTENDING ACROSS N IN AND CNTRL OHIO. MAIN SFC LOW NOW
OVER S-CNTRL MN WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SWRD OVER IA AND NW MO.
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOW 70S AND TEMPS INTO THE LOW
AND MID 80S. SAT PICS SHOWING THAT THE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED TODAY
AS EXPECTED...BUT WEAK CAP KEEPING THINGS AT BAY THUS FAR. MODELS
LOOKS SIMILAR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO NO REAL STRONG PREFERENCE. PER
HPC DISCUSSIONS/CHAT ROOM...HEAVED LEANED AWAY FROM GFS SOLUTION OF
UPPER LOW OVER PLAINS STATES WED/THU AND WENT WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
OPTIMISTIC ECMWF SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...MODELS SHOWING VERY STRONG INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER S IL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AREA FOR SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION..SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. OVERALL THOUGH...EXPECT
THE MAIN SHOW TONIGHT TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
ALSO SLOWED DOWN THE MCS LOOKING ACTIVITY ABOUT 3-6 HOURS ALSO.
NOTED LATEST QPFERD GRAPHICS...WILL DEFINITELY MAKE MENTION OF HEAVY
RAINS IN ZONES BUT WILL HOLD SHORT OF ISSUING A FFA. COULD ALSO BE
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE TONIGHT (INITIALLY) ALSO.

EXPECT SHRA/TSRA LIKELY IN THE MORNING TOMORROW. THEN LOOK FOR A
CALM PERIOD MIDDAY-AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS/RELOADS.
SEVERE THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKS PRETTY SERIOUS
AND AGREE WITH SPC MODERATE THREAT. OUR THINKING AT THIS TIME IS
AFTER 21Z TOMORROW...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 00Z AND LASTING UNTIL 06-07Z
OR SO. MAY GO AHEAD AND MAKE MENTION OF SOME STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH DONT NORMALLY MENTION IT THAT FAR IN
ADVANCE. WE WILL ALSO FRESHEN UP THE HWO PRODUCT AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY LOOKS MUCH CALMER...COOLER. CHC SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OR SO. HIGH TEMPS COME BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S.
COOLER AND MUCH MORE STABLE WEATHER TO DOMINATE MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
I KEPT MON-TUE PARTLY CLOUDY AND NO PCPN. DROPPED MENTION OF ALL
POPS ON WED. HPC FEELING THAT THE GFS IS WAY OVERDOING THE
CENTRAL-UPPER PLAINS LOW WED-THU AND ENSEMBLE MEANS DONT SUPPORT IT.
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF. KEPT LOW CHC POPS IN DATABASE FOR (FOR
NOW) ON THU OVER S 2/3 OF CWA. KEPT FRIDAY DRY.

ISC GRIDS ALREADY SENT. FURTHER COORDINATION WELCOME.

.ILX...NONE.

HALL

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-091100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1239 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THIS AREA WILL BE BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF NOON AND MIDNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EAST OF THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM ACROSS
MISSOURI AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...LIFTING
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...BRINGING A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO
ILLINOIS LATER IN THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH THROUGH ILLINOIS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC
AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX (ALL IN LOWER CASE)

BYRD