Severe Thunderstorm Warning 258, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
250 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL MAINLY BE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH
QUIET WEATHER AFTER THAT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED
JUST WEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. ONE SUCH
SHORTWAVE HAS INTERACTED WITH A WIND SHIFT LINE IN CENTRAL IL TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE T-STORMS. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE IS PUSHING INTO CENT IOWA WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
THUS...WILL KEEP SCATTERED T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVE.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO
WILL AT LEAST KEEP A 20 POP ALONG AND WEST OF THE IL RIVER...WITH
40 POPS IN ECENT/SE.

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SRN WI BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE
WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED T-STORMS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE
UPPER TROF AXIS THROUGH CENT IL LATE SUN/ERLY MON...AND THEN SWINGING
THE COLD CORE INTO INDIANA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR T-STORMS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NITE...
THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING.

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BY LATE MONDAY...AND A SHIFT IN THE UPPER
LOW TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL END THE CHANCE OF T-STORMS AND
BRING CLEARING SKIES. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
A JACKSONVILLE-EFFINGHAM LINE FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WED...AS A VORT
MAX SHEARS OUT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FROM CENT IOWA INTO WRN TN. FOR
NOW WILL STAY WITH PERSISTANCE AND KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL THERE IS
MORE CONTINUITY WITH THAT WEATHER FEATURE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WILL BE RATHER UNEVENTFUL WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

.ILX...NONE.

MILLER

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-031100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1130 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. IT APPEARS THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WOULD BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SINK SOUTH IN
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FAIRLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO PRODUCE
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE LOW FOR BOTH DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC
AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL
IN LOWER CASE.

EH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
202 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0140 PM    4 NE HAVANA               IL   1.75 INCH HAIL
08/02/03   MASON                          REPORTED BY COOP OBSERVER.

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
323 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0322 PM    LINCOLN                   IL   .75 INCH HAIL
08/02/03   LOGAN                          REPORTED BY NWS STAFF.

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
328 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0325 PM    RANTOUL                   IL   .75 INCH HAIL
08/02/03   CHAMPAIGN                      REPORTED BY SHERIFF.

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
354 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0352 PM    KINCAID                   IL   .88 INCH HAIL
08/02/03   CHRISTIAN                      REPORTED BY ESDA.

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
437 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0350 PM    NE WAPELLA                IL   WIND DAMAGE
08/02/03   DE WITT                        8-9 INCH DIAMETER TREE
                                          LIMBS DOWN OUT OF TREE.
                                          REPORTED BY ESDA

0350 PM    WAPELLA                   IL   WIND DAMAGE
08/02/03   DE WITT                        NE END OF TOWN, CANOPY
                                          RIPPED OUT OF GROUND.
                                          REPORTED BY ESDA.

0420 PM    S WARRENSBURG             IL   WIND DAMAGE
08/02/03   MACON                          TREE DOWN AT INTERSECTION
                                          OF 121 AND PARK ROAD.

HJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
449 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0445 PM    N TAYLORVILLE             IL   FLASH FLOOD
08/02/03   CHRISTIAN                      WATER OVER THE ROAD ON THE
                                          BLACKTOP NORTH OF
                                          TAYLORVILLE TO MOUNT
                                          AUBURN. REPORTED BY STATE
                                          POLICE.