Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
330 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2003

MODELS MORE SIMILAR TODAY WITH ETA STILL A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING SE THRU CENTRAL IL TODAY. LIKE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...
WILL TEND TO SIDE WITH THE ETA MODEL FOR SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT.
FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTION CHANCES TODAY AND RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW WI ACROSS EASTERN IA AND FAR NW MO
WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MCS AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN IA...NORTHERN IL AND SE WI AND MOVING SE
FUELED BY 40 TO 50 KFT LOW LEVEL JET. HAD LIKELY POPS FROM PEORIA
NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH PROB40 SOUTH OF PEORIA TODAY THOUGH
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-70. COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE SE
TOWARD THE IL RIVER BY NOON...TO I-70 BY SUNSET AND PASS
LAWRENCEVILLE BY MIDNIGHT.  CONTINUE PROB30 CHANCE OF CONVECTION
FROM I-70 SOUTH THIS EVENING UNTIL FRONT PASSES. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK
SOUTH OF I-70 TODAY WHERE ATMOSPHERE HAS MORE OF A CHANCE TO
DESTABLIZED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER MORNING MCS DECAYS. CAPES INCREASE
ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 6C SOUTH OF I-72 THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE HUMID TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S AND WARMER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO DRIFT ACROSS IL WED AND EAST
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THU AND PROVIDE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
LESS HUMID AIR. GUIDANCE TEMPS SIMILAR AND NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS
NEXT FEW DAYS AND FOLLOWED CLOSELY. A 600 DM 500 MB HIGH REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND KEEPS THE REAL HOT WEATHER SW OF
IL THIS WEEK. IL REMAINS IN A WNW UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS WEEK WITH
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVING LATER FRI AND SAT. DID ADD CHANCE OF
CONVECTION FRI AFTERNOON NORTHERN CWA AND CHANCE SE CWA THIS WEEKEND
TO BETTER BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. GFS MAY BE OVERDOING QPF
OVER IL FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

.ILX...NONE.

HUETTL

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-161100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
530 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO MID MORNING
FROM I-74 NORTH AND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM I-70 SOUTH. THE
SEVERE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AND THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO MID MORNING FROM I-74 NORTH
AND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM I-70 SOUTH.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC
AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL
IN LOWER CASE.

KH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
731 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0526 AM    LACON                     IL   WIND DAMAGE
07/15/03   MARSHALL                       TREE DOWN ACROSS BLUE
                                          HERON RD. REPORTED BY
                                          POLICE DEPARTMENT

0536 AM    LACON                     IL   WIND DAMAGE
07/15/03   MARSHALL                       POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN
                                          ACROSS MAIN AND 6TH ST.
                                          REPORTED BY POLICE
                                          DEPARTMENT

KD