Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
330 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2003

...CORRECTED TO ADD FLOOD WATCH AT THE BOTTOM...

SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING EAST/WEST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER HAS ALMOST PUSHED EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL
STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM
BURLINGTON TO CHAMPAIGN. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT UNTIL COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. STATIONARY FRONT MAY NUDGE
A LITTLE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT ITS PROGRESS TO BE
HAMPERED BY CONVECTION TO ITS NORTH.

WITH THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...THE GROUND WILL BE PRIMED FOR
FLOODING WITH THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
AREA...BUT KEEP IT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WHERE RAINFALL HAS NOT BEEN
AS HEAVY.

AS FOR THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...WILL USE A BLEND OF
ETA AND GFS...WHICH PUTS THE FRONT OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS MIDDAY...
AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z. WILL END THE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON
THURSDAY AND RETAIN A CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING.

DRIER WEATHER THEN ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HINTS AT A
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY POPS UNTIL
THE NEXT CYCLE.  NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.    ..04..

.ILX...FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TONIGHT ZONES 27>31..36>38..40>48.

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-092200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1105 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH
ACROSS IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN
ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS HAS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL STRETCH ALONG AND
WEST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO BLOOMINGTON LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...ADDING TO THE ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM YESTERDAYS TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A BEARDSTOWN TO DANVILLE LINE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 57. PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC
AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL
IN LOWER CASE.

PLAHMER