Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
227 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

PLENTY OF CHALLENGES TODAY WITH SVR WX AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...PLUS PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES REST OF THE PERIOD.

LATEST 18Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES SFC LOW ACROSS SE MN AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN WITH SFC WARM FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN EAST INTO GREAT LAKES
REGION. SFC COLD FRONT IS ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWEST INTO
EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.  LATEST 1815Z IR SATELLITE PLACES
PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.  LATEST 1815Z VISIBLE SATELLITE PLACES A
LINE OF CU ACROSS EASTERN IOWA. LATEST 1815Z W/V IMAGE PLACES S/W
ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST...WITH SEVERAL S/WS ACROSS PLAINS STATES AND
MOUNTAIN WEST.  LATEST 18Z MSAS DATA INDICATES LI/S OF ZERO TO -3
ACROSS CWA. LATEST 1836Z KILX RADAR PLACES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SE ILLINOIS MOVING EAST.

MODELS HAVING SEVERAL DIFFERENCES.  WILL USE A BLEND OF MODELS AND
LEAN ON THE GFS.

MODELS PLACE H50 LOW/TROUGH ACROSS MIDWEST AND ANOTHER H50 TROUGH
ACROSS MONTANA BY 12Z WED.  H50 LOW/TROUGH IS ACROSS OHIO VALLEY
WITH H50 TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS STATES/UPPER MIDWEST BY 12Z
THU. H50 TROUGH IS ACROSS PLAINS STATES BY 12Z FRI. SFC LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST AND IS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH
ANOTHER SFC LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY 12Z WED. SFC LOW IS
ACROSS NORTHEAST U.S. WITH THE OTHER SFC LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN IL BY
00Z THU.  SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH ANOTHER SFC
LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS PANHANDLE OF TEXAS BY 00Z FRI. LATEST T/H
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATES HIGH RH AT ALL LEVELS THROUGH 06Z WED THEN
RETURNS HIGH RH AT ALL LEVELS BY 21Z WED-06Z THU. THEN A RETURN OF
HIGH RH AT ALL LEVELS BY 12Z SAT.  LATEST 305K ISENTROPIC SFC
INDICATES DECENT COND PRES DEF AND LIFT ACROSS SE CWA THROUGH 12Z
WED. THEN MAINTAINS SOME COND PRES DEF ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH
00Z FRI. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY OF LI/S
NEAR -4...PW/S 1.5 FROM 00Z WED-06Z WED.  SOUNDING DATA INDICATES
SOME LOW LEVEL RH AT 12Z WED AND FAIRLY DECENT RH AT ALL LEVELS BY
00Z THU. THEN FAIRLY HIGH RH AT LOW LEVELS FROM 06Z THU-12Z THU.
MODELS PLACE +15C TO +17C 850MB TEMPS ACROSS CWA BY 12Z WED...+15C
TO +16C 850MB TEMPS BY 12Z THU...+15C TO +17C 850MB TEMPS BY 12Z
FRI.  DEEPLY CONCERNED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN SE ZONES
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...HOWEVER WILL
PROBABLY GO PERIODS OF TSTMS CENTRAL AND OCCASIONAL TSTMS SOUTHEAST
ZONES.  WITH FFG HIGH AND UNCERTAINTY IN HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL HOLD
OFF ON FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT.  EXTENDED...A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH WEEKEND AND H50 RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD IN ON TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES...LEANED ON COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT.

.ILX...NONE.

EH

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1101 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS
WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. HEAVY RAINS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC
AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL
IN LOWER CASE.

MILLER