Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1145 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2003

UPDATED ZONES FOR STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR WARMER HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S WEST OF I-57. OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL LIKELY...THOUGH MAINLY EARLY WEST OF I-57. EXPECT HIGHS
BETWEEN 75 AND 80 WITH WARMEST READINGS SE AND WESTERN CWA WHILE
WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH BECOME NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS
CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT AT 16Z EXTENDED FROM SE WI SW ALONG THE IA/IL BORDER AND
INTO NW MO. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS EAST OF THE IL RIVER
WITH JUST A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S IN RAIN COOLED AREAS OF THE NW
CWA...TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN SUNNIER AREAS OF THE SE CWA.

SPC CONTINUED TO SHIFT SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
SE AND NOW ALONG AND SE OF I-70 UNTIL SUNSET. LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE MID 50S EASTERN CWA WHILE LOWER 60S NW CWA. MOISTURE FAIRLY
SHALLOW AS 850 MB DEWPOINT OF 0C AT KILX AT 12Z WHILE POOL OF
DEWPOINTS OF 6 TO 8C ALONG COLD FRONT IN SE IA AND NW MO. SOME
INSTABILITY AROUND WITH CAPES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 2 TO 4C. FASTER ETA HAS BEEN
DOING BETTER WITH MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT AND CONTINUED TO FOLLOW.
COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE TO I-55 BY 21Z AND TO THE IL/IN BORDER BY 00Z.
GRADIENT WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND TURNING NW AFTER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.ILX...NONE.

HUETTL

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-291100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1100 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS...EAST OF I-55. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXIT
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS BY SUNSET. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT EAST OF ILLINOIS BY SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR MORE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-57. THE PRIMARY THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 1 AND 7 PM.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL
IN LOWER CASE.

SMITH/HUETTL