Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
215 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

CHALLENGES THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE HOW LONG CURRENT SHORT-TERM PRECIP
EVENT WILL LAST AND PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.

COLD POOL MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO CWA AND INTERACTING WITH A WARM
FRONT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST MEANS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO EVENING.
COLD POOL SHOULD BE CLOSEST TOMORROW...HOWEVER FOCUS SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF AREA AND DEW POINTS SHOULD BE LOWER.  EVEN SO...LAPSE
RATES ARE STEEP AND WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE SERN HALF OF
THE CWA FOR THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE ELSEWHERE AND THEN A CHANCE
EVERYWHERE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

NEXT PRECIP CHANCE IS INTO THE WEEKEND. 12Z GFS AND 00Z CANADIAN
SUGGEST THAT PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A SOLUTION THAT WOULD KEEP
PRECIP SOUTH OF THE CWA.  GFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT OPERATIONAL MRF
MAY BE AN OUTLIER AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN MAY BE TRENDING TOWARD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. SINCE THERE REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTIANTY WILL
MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL
BRING IN A CHANCE DURING THE NIGHT FRIDAY IN SOUTHWEST...GO WITH
CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT AND THEN LIMIT
POPS TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY.

TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

.ILX...NONE.

BARKER

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-151100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1145 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE TO
CHAMPAIGN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC
AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX (ALL IN LOWER CASE)

SMITH