Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

HIGHLIGHT OF FORECAST PACKAKE IS ANOTHER DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER INTO
TONIGHT ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINS. ONGOING THUNDESTORMS OVER
EASTCENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING THAT WERE SEVERE EARLIER WITH
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL REPORTS UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE. YET ANOTHER ROUND
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. SPC DAY1
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO HAVE IL IN A MODERATE RISK FOR CHANCE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. THIS WILL BE THE 5TH DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PAST
WEEK

SYNOPTICALLY MODELS SIMILAR WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROF
PIVOTING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WHILE STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE DEEPENS AS IT MOVES
NE INTO EAST KS BY 18Z AND INTO FAR NW IL BY 06Z TONIGHT BRINGING A
COLD FRONT EAST THRU THE STATE TONIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTION NORTH OF
I-70 TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND
FOCUSED MORE TO THE SW CLOSER TO DEVELOPING LOW IN KS. SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD APPEAR THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE AGAIN WITH TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH TEMPS IN LOWER 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 4 TO
8C AND CAPES OF 1500 TO 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 100 TO 120 KNOT
300 MB JET WILL ALSO PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT ACROSS
CENTRAL IL BY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY
...THEN LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT MOVING IN. FFG VALUES ARE
1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS. THINK A FEW
SPOTS COULD REACH THESE VALUES...BUT DO NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH IN
CENTRAL IL FOR A FLOOD WATCH. BEST ORGANIZED CONVECTION TODAY IS
EAST OVER INDIANA AND SW ACROSS MO/KS. CONVECTION IS ALSO MOVING
ALONG TO THE NORTHEAST. SEVERE RISK LOOKS BEST THIS EVENING FOR ILX
CWA...THEN SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES THRU. GFS STILL
APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH FRONT GIVEN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.

COOLER AND BREEZY ON MOTHERS DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS.
PROB30 CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF I-70 WITH STRONG SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPS NEARLY 20 DEGREES
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY MON TO BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL DAY IN THE
60S.

THANKS FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER COORDINATION SPC.

.ILX...NONE.

HUETTL

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
731 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST BY EARLY EVENING AND CROSS THE STATE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE NEARBY FRONT...MUGGY AIR
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WIND
DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT...WILL PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
LONG-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES
...LARGE HAIL...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER
ALERT TODAY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES
AND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

IN THE MEANTIME...FOR THIS MORNING...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY AT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A
PEORIA TO BLOOMINGTON LINE AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 57.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER INFORMATION WOULD BE USEFUL THIS MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF A
PEORIA TO CHAMPAIGN LINE. IN ADDITION...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE
NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS EVENING.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC
AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX (ALL IN LOWER CASE)

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
213 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0205 AM    MAROA                     IL   .75 INCH HAIL
05/10/03   MACON                          REPORTED BY MACON COUNTY
                                          SHERIFF

HJS

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>051-053-100930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
405 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 328 HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 4 AM ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS NORTH OF I-70 HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4
AM. MORE SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

KH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
709 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0700 AM    WOODSON                   IL   .88 INCH HAIL
05/10/03   MORGAN                         REPORTED BY MORGAN COUNTY
                                          SHERIFF.

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
713 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0705 AM    10 W WAVERLY              IL   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/10/03   MORGAN                         REPORTED BY MORGAN COUNTY
                                          SHERIFF.

KELLY