Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
120 PM CST WED MAR 19 2003

MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF PCPN ALONG WITH
TEMPS AS SLOW MOVING UPPER TROF LIFTS NE ACROSS AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAJORITY OF PCPN CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
VIGOROUS MID LEVEL S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND S/W RESULTING IN RAPID CLEARING OF SKIES SOUTH OF
I-70. CLEARING IS RESULTING IN INCREASED INSTABILITY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT AS AIRMASS RECOVERS COMBINED WITH SHEAR ALONG WARM
FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POP...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS EVENING IN PERIOD
OF GREATEST INSTABILITY. WARM AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THURS AS UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED INSTABIITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BY AFTERNOON FOR
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS. LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK OK. THIS SYSTEM
FINALLY LIFTS NE OF THE AREA DURING DAY ON FRI AND ASSOCIATED PCPN
CHCS SHOULD DECREASE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY AND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...
GFS AND NCEP ENSEMBLES IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH DRY FCST FOR SAT
THRU MON WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE EARLY PART OF
WEEKEND...WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO 60S AGAIN
FOR SUN/MON. TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS ROCKIES BY TUES APPROACHING
MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED PCPN CHCS FOR TUES AND WED.

.ILX...NONE

FRIEDERS

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-201200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
154 PM CST WED MAR 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY
ACROSS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL MAINTAIN
THIS CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ON THURSDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

A LARGE STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI...WILL SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE REGION...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STAY
TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC
AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX (ALL IN LOWER CASE)

FRIEDERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
0546 PM CST WED MAR 19 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0517 PM    MOWEAQUA                  IL   FLOOD
03/19/03   SHELBY                         WATER 4 TO 5 INCHES DEEP
                                          OVER LOCAL ROADS. REPORTED
                                          BY COOP OBSERVER.

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
723 PM CST WED MAR 19 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0658 PM    SPRINGFIELD               IL   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/19/03   SANGAMON                       QUARTER SIZED HAIL
                                          REPORTED BY SPRINGFIELD
                                          POLICE DEPT ON THE
                                          SOUTHEAST SIDE OF
                                          SPRINGFIELD.

DPK