Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
325 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THIS MORNING AS NOSE
OF 40 KT 925 MB JET SHIFTS EAST INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. BASED ON
300-850 MB THICKNESS...LOOKS LIKE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DROP
A LITLLE MORE SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL OHIO TOWARD 12Z. WILL
THEREFORE GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR WAPOK AND CMH GROUPS WITH HIGH CHC
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THERE.

WARMFRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GOOD WARMING ACROSS AREA. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
BUT WILL GO A LITTLE COOLER THAN THAT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF PCPN THIS MORNING. GOOD INSTABILITY ACROSS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WITH FRONT LIFTING NORTH...BEST FORCING HEADS NORTH
TOO SO WILL GENERALY GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

BETTER CHANCE THEN SPREADS BACK IN TONIGHT WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET
RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM 06Z TO 12Z. BEST CHANCE AGAIN LOOKS TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS AND KEEP CHANCE
IN THE SOUTH. WITH GOOD SLY FLOW...WILL BUMP UP LOWS A LITTLE FOR
TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE PCPN SHOULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH CHANCE CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTH IN WARM SECTOR.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES GIVING HIGHS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE FOR
SATURDAY. WILL UNDERCUT THIS A LITTLE BUT SHOULD STILL SEE PRETTY
WARM TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS GOOD WAA PATTERN CONTINUES.

FRONT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL GO LIKELY POPS
ENTIRE FA. LOOKS LIKE PCPN MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
EAST SO WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE POP THERE. IMPRESSIVE 925/850
WINDS IN CAA PATTERN BEHIND FRONT. THINK WINDY CONDITIONS A GOOD BET
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

.ILN...NONE.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ034-035-042>046-051>056-
060>065-070>074-077>082-088-091100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
410 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WARM AND HUMID AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING...THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER WILL BE LARGE HAIL.  DAYTIME HEATING...COUPLED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY...WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WARM...MOIST AIR...ALONG WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE...WILL GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY.  SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH COULD CONTAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...LASTING
INTO MONDAY.  THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT EITHER
WIND ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-091400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
346 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WARM AND HUMID AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING...THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER WILL BE LARGE HAIL.  DAYTIME HEATING...COUPLED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY...WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LISTEN TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

WWUS81 KILN 090748
SPSILN
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-091400-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
346 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WARM AND HUMID AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING...THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER WILL BE LARGE HAIL.  DAYTIME HEATING...COUPLED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY...WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LISTEN TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER UPDATES.