Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
255 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2003

MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS OHIO VALLEY.
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THIS WAY IS DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WITH PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.  WITH
THAT ACTIVITY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN FRINGE...1000-500 THICKNESS
DIFFLUENCE...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...A LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED
MAX...AND A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW ALL
POINT TO HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THEREFORE WELL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH.

SEVERE TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT SEVERE THREAT.

WITH TSRA ON OUR DOORSTEP...100 POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR TODAY.
CHANCE OF TSRA WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
THURSDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN BRIEFLY.  CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK
NORTH AGAIN.

WITH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...HIGH TEMPS IN LOW/MID 70S LOOK
GOOD FOR TODAY.  MODELS DIFFER FOR THURSDAY. A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
WARMER ETA AND COOLER MAV APPEARS TO BE THE WAY TO GO.

.ILN...FLOOD WATCH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTN FOR ALL
LOCATIONS EXPECT FAR NRN ZONES (WAPAKONETA REGION).

CONIGLIO

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-061100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
500 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY.
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOP OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

AR

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-072000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
307 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL FUEL
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS TODAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE PRIMARY
THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AND REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FLOODING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. KEEP
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

AR