Severe Thunderstorm Warning 313, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
155 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

WITH SUPERCOMPUTER PROBLEMS AT NCEP AND SPORADIC SUBSTITUTE MODEL
DATA( AFWA FOR ETA...NAVY NOGAPS FOR GFS)...WILL NOT MAKE SWEEPING
CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST.  CHANGES WILL FOCUS MORE ON THE SHORT
TERM...WHICH INVOLVES TODAY AND THURSDAY.

CURRENT KILN RADAR SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
JUST TO THE N OF CWFA.  MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ERUPTING OVER SW
MICHIGAN NEAR COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WEAK SFC LOW.  FOR TODAY...WITH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPR SUPPORT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT BECOME
WIDESPREAD.  HOWEVER...AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT APCHS FROM THE
NW...EXPECT BEST CHC/S THIS AFTN TO BE ACRS THE N
(WAPOK...DAY...CMH...AROUND 40 PERCENT).  FOR THE SOUTH...PREVIOUS
MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING A DECREASE IN THE STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AROUND 850 MB.  THUS...BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MORE BUILDUPS
ACRS THE SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY...AND A 30 PERCENT CHC IS WARRANTED.
FCST TEMPS LOOK OK AT THIS POINT.

FOR TONIGHT...FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACRS CWFA BEFORE STOPPING
SOMEWHERE OVER SRN OHIO.  AGAIN...WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPR
SUPPORT AND LOW LVL FORCING...BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND WILL WORD ZONES THIS WAY.

ON THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT...ALLOWING HUMID AIR TO OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE CWFA ONCE AGAIN.
WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD AFTN/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT IS EXPECTED ACRS THE CWFA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

.ILN...NONE.

HICKMAN

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-271100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

OHZ077-272000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
438 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

...HEAT INDICES TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES ACROSS HAMILTON COUNTY AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...

A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES TO ALLOW HEAT
INDICES TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN LOCATIONS.

CHILDREN...THE ELDERLY AND PEOPLE WITH CHRONIC AILMENTS ARE USUALLY
THE FIRST TO SUFFER FROM THE HEAT. HEAT EXHAUSTION...CRAMPS...OR IN
EXTREME CASES HEAT STROKE CAN RESULT FROM PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THESE
CONDITIONS.  FRIENDS...RELATIVES...OR NEIGHBORS SHOULD CHECK ON
PEOPLE WHO MAY BE AT RISK DURING THIS HEAT SPELL.

PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID PROLONGED WORK IN THE SUN...OR IN
POORLY VENTILATED AREAS ON TUESDAY.  KEEP PLENTY OF LIQUIDS ON HAND
AND TRY TO STAY IN AN AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENT.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS ON THIS HEAT SITUATION.

OHZ077-261600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
348 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

...HEAT INDICES TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES ACROSS HAMILTON COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WARM...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER
90S.  THESE TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...WILL ALLOW
HEAT INDICES TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN LOCATIONS.

CHILDREN...THE ELDERLY AND PEOPLE WITH CHRONIC AILMENTS ARE USUALLY
THE FIRST TO SUFFER FROM THE HEAT. HEAT EXHAUSTION...CRAMPS...OR IN
EXTREME CASES HEAT STROKE CAN RESULT FROM PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THESE
CONDITIONS.  FRIENDS...RELATIVES...OR NEIGHBORS SHOULD CHECK ON
PEOPLE WHO MAY BE AT RISK DURING THIS HEAT SPELL.

PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID PROLONGED WORK IN THE SUN...OR IN
POORLY VENTILATED TODAY.  KEEP PLENTY OF LIQUIDS ON HAND AND
TRY TO STAY IN AN AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENT.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS ON THIS HEAT SITUATION.

OHZ077-272000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION FOR DATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
449 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

...HEAT INDICES TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES ACROSS HAMILTON COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES TO ALLOW HEAT
INDICES TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN LOCATIONS.

CHILDREN...THE ELDERLY AND PEOPLE WITH CHRONIC AILMENTS ARE USUALLY
THE FIRST TO SUFFER FROM THE HEAT. HEAT EXHAUSTION...CRAMPS...OR IN
EXTREME CASES HEAT STROKE CAN RESULT FROM PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THESE
CONDITIONS.  FRIENDS...RELATIVES...OR NEIGHBORS SHOULD CHECK ON
PEOPLE WHO MAY BE AT RISK DURING THIS HEAT SPELL.

PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID PROLONGED WORK IN THE SUN...OR IN
POORLY VENTILATED TODAY.  KEEP PLENTY OF LIQUIDS ON HAND AND
TRY TO STAY IN AN AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENT.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS ON THIS HEAT SITUATION.