Severe Thunderstorm Warning 305, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
330 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE ILN FA. MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FCST AREA UNDER A SVR
TS WATCH UNTIL 6 PM...MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WINDS.  TEMPS ARE NEAR 90
SOUTH OF THE CLOUD COVER STREAMING OUT FROM THIS AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE EXISTING CONVECTION WILL NOT PENETRATE TOO FAR
SOUTHWARD AS FCST SNDGS INDICATE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY
MORE CAPPED AS ONE PROGRESSES SOUTH.  HOWEVER...THE ETA DEVELOPS
ANOTHER S/W LATE COINCIDENT WITH A LL JET LATE SO WILL CARRY SOME
POPS EVERYWHERE BUT THE FAR SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BNDRY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH CAPES
AROUND/OVER 3000 J/KG IN THE NORTH AND SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SOUTH.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CIN IN NORTH AND NOT A TREMENDOUS
AMOUNT EVEN IN SOUTH.  THIS BNDRY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE POPS.

FOR THURSDAY...THE BNDRY WASHES OUT AND/OR MOVES BACK NORTH.  WILL
CARRY AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  THERE IS NOT MUCH FORCING BUT
INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH WITH CAPES FROM 2500-3500 J/KG AUGMENTED BY
LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  FCST TEMPS LOOK FINE.

ON THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF IS STILL MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
WEEKEND FRONT THAN THE GFS WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO DELAY FROPA IN
SE.  THE ECMWF HAS FROPA LATE SAT NIGHT EVEN IN SE WHILE THE GFS
WAITS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY THERE.  DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...WILL
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING.

.ILN...NONE.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-261100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WARM...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE LOWER 90S.  THESE TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES.
PLEASE SEE CLESPSILN FOR SPECIFIC AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE HEAT RELATED
PROBLEMS WHEN HEAT INDICES APPROACH 100 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.