Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1000 AM EST THU MAR 20 2003

SERIES OF S/WS FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS AREA NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY SHOWN ON WV SAT IMAGERY CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN TN WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND GRAZE EASTERN PORTIONS OF FA.
EASTERN FA ALSO IN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BROADER
VORT AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN FA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS REGION IN AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITIES WITH SFC BASED CAPES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. 120 KT 3H JET ALSO
MOVING ACROSS TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH FA IN LF QUAD RESULTING
IN SOME ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS ENTIRE AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WEST. 12Z ILN SOUNDING HAD WBZ AROUND 6000 FEET AND THIS WILL LIKELY
RISE INTO FAVORABLE HAIL RANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SO INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME HAILERS. WILL JUST MAKE
SOME MINOR WORDING ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL BUMP UP
TEMPS A LITTLE IN THE SOUTH.

.ILN...NONE.

LOTT

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
348 AM EST THU MAR 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SMALL HAIL IN MOST OF THESE
STORMS...AND A FEW OF THEM COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

FRANKS

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SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1150 AM EST THU MAR 20 2003

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PULL WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION TO BECOME UNSTABLE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE REGION UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.